Rail Baltica is an in-progress infrastructure project expected to be fully operational by 2030. Originally proposed in 1994, it will result in a north-south railway corridor through the Baltic states that, in addition to better integrating the region into the EU, will create economic, environmental, and security enhancements for the region. At an estimated cost of €5.6 billion ($6 billion), it will form the backbone of the Trans-European Transport Network’s North Sea-Baltic Corridor by connecting Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania with Poland and the rest of the European Union (EU) rail system. The entire project will consist of a main railway corridor running from Warsaw to Tallinn via Bialystok, Kaunas, Panevėžys, Riga, and Pärnu. To enhance intercity and intermodal connectivity throughout the region, there will be two branch lines off the main corridor: one from Kaunas to Vilnius in Lithuania, and one to Riga Airport in Latvia. 

The key difference between Rail Baltica and the Baltic states’ existing rail networks is the track gauge—the distance between the rails, normally measured in millimeters—it will use. Currently almost the entirety of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania’s national railway networks are built to 1,520mm broad gauge specifications, a legacy of Soviet influence in the region, in contrast to the EU (and worldwide) standard gauge of 1,435mm. Due to the different track gauges, trains from the EU cannot operate in the Baltic states, and vice-versa. Rail Baltica and its standard gauge tracks will amend this and allow cargo, passengers, and if needed, military equipment, to flow seamlessly to all major Baltic cities.

In terms of economic benefits, deciding to construct Rail Baltica was a simple decision for all parties involved. The project’s cost-benefit analysis reveals that Rail Baltica is expected to generate €16.2 billion ($17.3 billion) in quantifiable benefits, a figure that is nearly three times greater than its construction costs. The fact that the EU will provide up to 85% of the funding for eligible costs related to the project further simplified the decision for the Baltic states’ national governments. These benefits will be felt by industries reliant on cargo shipments and the traveling public thanks to the time and cost advantages Rail Baltica will have over competing modes of transport (mainly road and air travel). In addition to these quantifiable benefits, Rail Baltica will help to reorient the Baltic region’s transport network away from Russia and towards the EU. It is expected that this reorientation will create a new economic corridor, bringing new jobs and investment to the region.

Rail Baltica is also important in terms of the EU’s climate goals. Currently, the only viable options for north-south transportation in the region are road and air travel. When completed, Rail Baltica will not just be a more sustainable, but a more attractive alternative. For example, the driving time between Tallinn and Vilnius is around seven hours, but will be completed in three hours, 38 minutes on Rail Baltica. This time saving, combined with cheaper tickets than air travel, are key because they will incentivize people to avoid more carbon intensive modes of transport, and utilize the new environmentally friendly electrically-powered trains; a phenomenon which has already been seen in other parts of the EU after the construction of major rail projects. According to data from Google Flights, if Rail Baltica is successful it will have the opportunity to eliminate up to 280 flights per week between the cities the new railway will serve. Although it may otherwise seem unlikely, the possible elimination of these flights is feasible thanks to the policy trend, initiated by France, of banning short-haul flights where timely alternatives exist.

In addition to providing the Baltic region and EU with economic and environmental benefits, Rail Baltica will also play a role in enhancing the region’s security. The project achieves this by providing easier access to many crucial military nodes and facilities throughout the region in its design. Local publications have also been quick to note that beyond providing improved access to existing military installations, in the event of a conflict the railway would similarly play a critical role transporting troops and supplies into the Baltics from neighboring NATO countries thanks to its quick, high-capacity transport capabilities. The security function of the railway, although considered fruitful from the start, has become much more important in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Finally, as with any major project, Rail Baltica needs citizen support if it is going to be successful. Due to its potential economic, environmental, and military benefits, the project has majority support (61%) among citizens of the Baltic countries. Now, the project is increasingly being viewed through the lens of the Russia-Ukraine war. Originally, the goal was for the railway to bring opportunities for economic development and prosperity to the region. But, increasingly people are viewing the project as essential for peace and security as well. For example, there was a more than 10% increase in the number of Estonians believing Rail Baltica will help strengthen regional military mobility capabilities occurring between 2021 and 2022. The public’s view of the project as increasingly important is essential to the railway’s continued success. This support will help the project overcome any potential obstacles in its completion and possibly ease the controversy that may arise over the inevitable cost overruns associated with a project of this magnitude. In the end, despite it being almost 30 years since Rail Baltica was first proposed, the wide range of economic, environmental, and security benefits the project will provide the region, coupled with strong public support, make the completion of this project vitally important.