In 1707, England and Scotland signed the Acts of Union to create a united kingdom under the name of Great Britain. Three hundred years later, Scottish dissatisfaction with London has caused internal unrest. The failed 2014 Referendum proved that just under half the country were in favor of independence, with 45% of Scots voting to leave the United Kingdom (UK). 

To add to the complexity of the matter, in 2016, the vote on Brexit saw all 32 counting regions in Scotland return a majority vote to remain in the European Union (EU). However, due to the larger English population voting to leave, the majority of the UK was in favor of departing the EU. This angered the Scots, as their country’s ballot results were not honored. They saw this as proof that Scotland truly has no voting power in UK-wide votes if a majority of England votes on the contrary. The Brexit ruling, coupled with volatile and eccentric leadership from the Tories, who saw three different Prime Ministers take office in 2022 (Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak), has pushed England’s northern neighbors to the brink. The Scottish National Party (SNP) continues to push for another referendum to achieve Scottish independence, and the current state of affairs makes this possibility as likely as ever. 

If the Scots are to succeed, how could the revelry of independence cause headaches for England, and the West in general? First off, a majority of the oil reserves in the UK’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) lie off the coast of Scotland, meaning Scotland would take control of production and revenue of these resources, severely hurting England’s GDP. Furthermore, important UK military bases have their home in Scotland, including a nuclear deterrence fleet. Deciding who gets access to which bases, fleets, and intelligence will only cause further problems between the two countries. However, most importantly, Scotland would likely have to apply for membership to NATO or the EU. These lengthy processes would allow adversaries – such as Russia – the time to deploy submarines off the coast of Scotland which lies along the southern part of the GIUK Gap, a strategic chokepoint named for the three countries that control it: Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom, who are all members of NATO.

Economically, a free Scotland would further upset an already financially unstable England, whose economic growth fell to an alarmingly low 0.4% in 2023. Presently, the UK comprises England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, and has a GDP of $3.1 trillion. While England makes up an overwhelming majority of the UK’s GDP, losing Scotland would still cost  the English due to the amounts of oil reserves located in Scotland. In 2018, oil and gas production contributed £24 billion to the UK GDP, and since 1971, oil and gas have created £334 billion in tax revenue for the UK Treasury. These oil and gas reserves belong to the EEZ of Scotland, so no longer having control of production would lose England billions of dollars every year, drive up already high gas prices, and force London to make concessions with the Scots for access. An independent Scotland would also cause issues for the UK military, with an estimated loss of £1.8 billion annually for the Scottish economy, and 15,000 jobs for Scots working in the UK defense industry. As the UK has nuclear weapons and a nuclear deterrence fleet in Scotland, they would need to find new locations in England to house the weapons, a tall order for London. In turn, Scotland would most likely rely on allies in NATO for military protection and keep a relatively small defense force themselves.

Furthermore, the circumstances surrounding NATO membership will be the most contentious problem resulting from independence, not only for Scotland and England, but for the West as a whole. This gap contributes to NATO security, as it prevents Russia from putting submarines in the Atlantic Ocean, as their ships cannot dock or sail through these waters without violating the sovereignty of a NATO country. However, if Scotland gains independence, and enters into the long application process to join NATO, Russia would likely harness the extended period to conduct operations that sail submarines through Scotland into the Atlantic Ocean. This undermines Western security, mainly through threats to NATO sea lines of communication (SLOCs), as Russia could destroy fiber optic cables at the bottom of the Atlantic. This would cut communications between America and Europe, cause worldwide server shutdowns, and temporarily stop the flow of goods, tanking the world economy. This would also hinder naval abilities in the Atlantic Ocean, a major threat to security against potential subsequent Russian attacks, especially because Russia has enhanced its submarine capabilities. For this reason, Scottish independence seems irrational, likely causing more harm than good, for their nation, the UK, and the West in the big picture. If Scotland wants their independence but does not want to threaten global security, then they must strike a deal with NATO before they break away from the UK.

As long as measures are taken to stabilize the economies of both Scotland and England by working out deals regarding oil and gas production and its revenue, the means exist in order to have an independent Scotland, even with these potential issues. The already integrated militaries should continue to work together towards common goals and share intelligence in order to keep both countries safe, especially given the physical proximity of the nations. An alternative approach for Scotland would be to emulate their Irish neighbors by cutting back significantly on defense spending and focusing their military more on peacekeeping missions, rather than nuclear deterrence. In order to keep Scotland and other NATO members safe, NATO should strike a deal with Scotland, allowing them to apply for membership early and officially separate from the UK under proper preparation, with the contingency that NATO forces are allowed to operate within the GIUK gap in order to preemptively stop Russia from putting submarines in the North Sea and Atlantic Ocean. If all the technicalities are untangled, and proactive plans are laid out in order to combat initial hurdles, pipers can play “Flower of Scotland” for the first time as the official national anthem and wave St. Andrew’s Cross through the streets of Edinburgh, without the fear of economic recession or Russian occupation.