Recent standoffs between Chinese and Filipino vessels in the South China Sea indicate  continuing tensions in the historic territorial dispute and the potential heightening of regional instability. In August 2023, Philippine vessels breached a Chinese coast guard blockade to deliver supplies to Filipino forces covering the Second Thomas Shoal. Two Philippine coast guard vessels were obstructed by at least four Chinese coast guard ships. Such incidents are not the first to have occurred in the South China Sea and are unlikely to be the last. 

The Second Thomas Shoal is located in the Spratly Islands which is claimed by China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei. The Philippines also claims the Scarborough Shoal, which is located within the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines but claimed by both China and Taiwan. This perpetual conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea is part of a larger regional conflict in Asia, especially for Southeast Asian states who face large powers like China. For decades, many Asian countries have cast competing claims to parts of the South China Sea. In the case of China, the country has faced criticism for using its coast guard and military forces to harass foreign ships, extracting resources in disputed areas, and, since 2013, building artificial islands in those waters. 

On September 5, 2023 for the 43rd ASEAN Summit, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) expressed concern over China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. To mitigate the risk of conflict breaking out, there have been talks of developing a code of conduct since the 1990s. A non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC) was agreed upon in 2002, and on July 13, 2023, ASEAN countries and China agreed on guidelines to expedite negotiations for a binding code of conduct in the South China Sea. However, this is contradictory to China’s decision to release a new national map in August 2023.  

The new national map includes the nine-dash lines, several disconnected lines that are meant to demarcate China’s maritime boundaries, and a tenth dash placed at the east of Taiwan. The map has been rejected by several ASEAN countries. Yet, as evident from recent skirmishes, China is far from letting go of its controversial claims in the region. China–Philippines relations have a negative impact not only on the Philippines' external relations with China but have also led to domestic security concerns within the Philippines. Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said that his department was keeping Chinese workers under closer surveillance for the threat of “covert economic activities and information activities.” Just prior to the statement, a coast guard official accused China of funding a misinformation campaign about China’s presence in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. 

In addition to domestic instability, the geopolitical ramifications of China-Philippines tensions go beyond Asia. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris  stated that, "the United States has an enduring commitment to Southeast Asia and more broadly to the Indo-Pacific.” In the past, China has faced international backlash. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines, which had filed a case in 2013 against China for violating the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The court declared that China’s claim to historical rights within the nine-dash line violated the principles outlined in UNCLOS and that some of China’s actions in the Philippines’s exclusive economic zone infringed upon the latter’s sovereign rights to resources there. 

The U.S. and the Philippines are old allies, dating back to 1951. If military conflict breaks out between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, it can be foreseen that China-U.S. tensions would escalate as the global actors contest each other’s power in different areas of the world. After an incident in February 2023, where a Chinese coast guard ship allegedly attacked a Philippine patrol vessel with military-grade lasers, the U.S. once again warned that if Filipino forces were attacked in the South China Sea, the U.S. would defend the Philippines. 

From the ongoing record of incidents between China and the Philippines within disputed waters, it is clear that the conflict within the South China Sea is nowhere close to being resolved, despite calls by ASEAN and international actors for China to scale back the extent of its activities in the area. For the sake of both regional and international stability, it is imperative that the nations exercise prudence in order to prevent further escalation of conflict.