The polar ice caps are melting. Almost everyone has heard this phrase at one point in their lives, but what exactly does that mean? Is it possible to stop the ice caps from melting? Is humanity past the point of no return? What does this mean for the future of the Arctic region? The fact that the polar ice caps are melting brings with it opportunities, challenges, and most of all, uncertainty. 

Opportunities in the Arctic

Much to the dismay of environmentalists, the melting of the polar ice caps brings opportunities never before possible. For most of human history, the Arctic region could not be traversed for a large part of the year. Layers of permafrost in the Northwest Passage and Arctic Ocean barred safe passage through those routes. However, with the decreased amount of permafrost and the ability to sail in the Arctic region for a longer period of time, shipping goods through the Arctic can actually save time and money as opposed to contemporary shipping routes. Today, ships traveling from Tokyo to New York City use the Panama Canal Route, a 17,821 kilometer journey. With the melting ice caps, one could make the same journey through the Northwest Passage in only 14,379 kilometers, about a 19 percent decrease in distance traveled. Similarly, Copenhagen Business School Professor Carter Hansen estimates that going from Tokyo to Rotterdam through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Russian Arctic would reduce the distance by 40 percent, as opposed to today’s method of using the Suez Canal Route. Currently, ships cannot make this journey year round due to the size of the ice caps in the winter months, so most companies that want to safely transport goods over the course of the year stick to traditional routes through the Panama and Suez Canals. Also, if ships today wanted to make the NSR crossing, they would need to follow an icebreaker ship, significantly slowing them down. However, the increased melting of the ice caps will continuously decrease the amount of time spent behind an icebreaker ship, cutting travel times. In 2016, a voyage along the NSR took 32.6 days, but a steady reduction in ice cover can reduce this time to 29.1 days by the year 2050. However, while the Arctic is full of shipping shortcuts due to the melting of the polar ice caps, this ability to more easily access the Arctic comes with its fair share of challenges, both economically and politically. 

Polar Challenges

The Arctic region consists of eight countries, all with varying claims of land and sea within the region. Most notably, Russia controls 53 percent of the Arctic Circle coastline and nearly half of the Arctic inhabitants are Russian. According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) the first 12 nautical miles off the coast of a country is considered territorial waters, where travelers must follow the laws of that country, and the next 12 nautical miles make up the contiguous zone, where that country still has control over customs, fiscal, and immigration laws. The important part of this convention lies in the definition of an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which extends 200 nautical miles off the coastline, where that country has the exclusive rights to the resources of the ocean. 

The NSR is mostly located within the EEZ of Russia, meaning any vessel that wants to take this route is subject to Russian laws and customs, and Russia can regulate what goods are allowed on the Route. The United States, however, is a non-signatory to the UNCLOS, which could lead to America disregarding the EEZ of Russia in order to extract resources or disobey regulation. The United States Geological Survey estimates that there are an undiscovered 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in the Arctic region. The U.S., which has not outlined an Arctic policy to date, and the existence of a substantial amount of oil and natural gas  has contributed to the Kremlin’s worries. Putin claims the resources of the Arctic are worth fighting for. This statement as well as the control of a majority of the Arctic encourages Russia to continue building up their military presence in the region. In early 2021, Russia stationed MiG-31 BM fighter planes on Franz Joseph Land, and then in Novaya Zemlya. The planes can fly in -60℃, meaning Russia has far superior military technology in the Arctic region, which worries the United States and its allies. In turn, the U.S. deployed a Bomber Task Force to Ørland, Norway. 

The nations surrounding Russia have become increasingly worried and agitated with Russian militarization of the Arctic. The Norwegian Ministry of Defense has acknowledged that the Arctic is becoming an area for great power rivalry and growing instability, and the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs has stressed the importance of continued international cooperation in the Arctic region. Whether Arctic nations can continue to communicate and maintain peace, or whether the region will devolve into conflict because of its increasing importance remains to be seen. 

The Uncertain Future

With the melting of the ice caps in the Arctic, more and more natural resources and manufactured goods will become available, and year round shortcuts through the Northwest Passage and the NSR could save lots of time and money. Now, is making a profit because the Arctic is melting a good thing? Absolutely not. But without a way to slow down and eventually stop the effects of climate change on the Arctic region, northern shipping routes will become the future. In turn, this Arctic-dependent future will force nations to either commit to continued peace and economic stability in the region, or research military technology capable of working in sub zero conditions. With the ongoing events in Ukraine, and the increasing importance of the Arctic region, the eight Arctic nations must cooperate, or risk letting their desires for political and economic influence over the region corrupt them. With the current state of the polar ice caps and the melting relationship between Russia and the West, it is only a matter of time before armies don white camouflage and snowshoes instead of combat boots.