Dynamics in the Horn of Africa may be in jeopardy after Ethiopia signed a preliminary agreement with the breakaway state of Somaliland; one that would grant the landlocked country access to the sea by way of Somaliland’s coastline.

The January memorandum of understanding involves Somaliland leasing 20 kilometers of land along its coastline to Ethiopia for 50 years, granting Ethiopia access to commercial ports and enabling the nation  to conduct import and export activities through the port of Berbera, the largest in Somaliland. In return, Somaliland would receive a stake in Ethiopian-Airlines; a symbol of international recognition that would  alter dynamics in the Horn of Africa and generate tensions with Somalia. 

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud condemned the deal, stating that the country would interpret the implementation of this agreement as an annexation of its territory. He argued that there is “no need” for Ethiopia to access ports through Somaliland, because it already has a 19 percent stake in the ownership and service of the Berbera Port. 

Somaliland has been a self-governing state since it broke ties with Somalia in 1991, but has yet to receive international recognition as an independent state. Somalia does not recognize Somaliland as sovereign, so through Ethiopia undergoing negotiations with Somaliland, Ethiopia is insinuating recognition of Somaliland's sovereignty. 

Ethiopia currently relies on neighboring Djibouti for its international trade, with 95 percent of its imports and exports passing through the Addis Ababa-Djibouti corridor. Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most populous countries with 123 million people, but its economy is restricted by a lack of access to the sea after being cut off from the Gulf of Aden in 1993 when Eritrea seceded, taking all of the country’s coastline with it. By signing a preliminary agreement with Somaliland—whose coastline runs over 400 miles along the Gulf of Aden—Ethiopia would gain access to trading ports and in effect reduce the amount of fees it spends to use the Port of Djibouti. 

In December 2023, Somalia and Somaliland came together to reopen dialogue of unity between the two states. However, President Muhaumaud claimed in an interview that he was left in the dark regarding Somaliland’s intentions to make a deal with Ethiopia considering  the Berbera Port. 

Somalia strongly objected to the agreement, calling it “null and void.” According to its internal  resolution, the agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia is a “hostile move ” that “undermines” the amicable relations, peace, and stability in a region that has been beset by numerous challenges: a clear indication that Somalia does not approve of Somaliland’s reach for sovereignty. 

The de facto state, has [begun to] shown signs of sovereignty: Somaliland has held its own election since 2003, and in 2010 saw a peaceful transfer of power. The United States, France, the United Kingdom and the European Union (EU) even sent delegations to observe Somaliland’s 2017 presidential elections. The autonomous Republic of Somaliland also issues its own passports and issues its own currency through its own national bank, “Baanka Somaliland.”

The British declared independence for Somaliland in 1960, but the independence only lasted five days before Somaliland merged with present-day Somalia, which at the time, was an Italian protectorate. Former Somali president Muhammas Siad Barre started a violent campaign in the 1980s, leading to a Somali civil war. The state and its institutions deteriorated when faced with economic mismanagement, which ultimately led to a widespread humanitarian crisis of famine and displacement. 

The Somali National Movement (SNM) formed in the north of Somalia—current day Somaliland—and attacked government forces in their home region. By May 1991, the SNM had secured the north of Somalia and declared that the 1960 federation was invalid, ultimately leading to the declaration of the Republic of Somaliland.  

President of Egypt Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, has also condemned the non-binding agreement, calling on Ethiopia to seek benefits not from Somaliland but from Djibouti and Somalia itself. The disapproval of yet another country in the Horn of Africa indicates a sense of reluctance to support initiatives that would destabilize the already-volatile Horn of Africa. 

If Ethiopia and Somaliland implement this agreement, relations in the Horn of Africa could change for the worse. President Mouhamoud was adamant that the agreement is a threat to Somali sovereignty, and a threat to sovereignty often requires revitalizing national security by means of self defense.  Could this cause a military conflict?  And if so, would Somalia aim to resolve the conflict directly through Somaliland, or would President Muhaumaud go to Ethiopia first?  

Somalia regards the potential port deal as a threat to its integrity. President Mouhamoud stated that Ethiopia “created” the issue, alluding that, if resolutions must be found between the two countries, Ethiopia is the route of the problem. Ethiopia and Somalia have had previous disputes, such as the Ogaden conflict of 1960 when the Western Somali Liberation Front used guerilla tactics to resist Ethiopian rule. The conflict ended in Somali defeat in 1978. 

Somalia may want to resolve the conflict with Ethiopia directly, but the two countries share the common threat of Al-Shabaab, a militant Islamic group based in Somalia that seeks to undermine the Somali government's authority and establish its version of Islamic rule in Somalia. The group emerged in the mid-2000s and has since carried out a number of attacks including suicide bombings, assassinations, and guerrilla warfare tactics, targeting both civilians and government officials. 

Al-Shabaab just recently tried to elicit issues in Ethiopia, but Ethiopia’s soldiers stopped the attacks in time. The group, linked to Al-Qaeda, attacked the town of Hulhul in Somali region in July 2022, as well as two small villages in Ethiopia. 

Evidently, despite the less-than friendly relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, the two east African countries share a common threat that could possibly stop them from disputing with one another. With  the danger of Al-Shabaab terrorizing both countries, Ethiopia and Somalia have a reason to work together. If the two countries are bound to work together, there is hope that Somalia will refrain from causing any damaging issues with Ethiopia over the Somaliland-Ethiopia agreement. 

Neither Somalia nor Ethiopia has yet to report their next steps, but seeing as the rest of the world has shown no signs of recognizing Somaliland’s sovereignty, Somaliland will likely be on its own when resolving discontent with Somalia over the recent port deal. 

In terms of Ethiopia, it seems clear that President Mohaumud, if needed, will try to solve the problem at its source: with Ethiopia. However, given the common threat the two countries share, it may be unlikely that Ethiopia and Somalia can afford to have poor relations with one another.