Last month, a Chinese military official purportedly visited Tokyo to brief Japan’s foreign and defense ministries directly on the contents of China’s newly issued National Defense White Paper, per NHK World. The 2019 defense white paper, titled China’s National Defense in the New Era, was issued on July 22nd and is China’s first defense white paper since 2015. NHK reported that this visit was without precedent in Sino-Japanese relations [i], as the two nations have historically acted as rival powers in East Asia. 

Over the past few years, the Asian rivals have enjoyed a thaw in persistently icy relations. In October of 2018 China and Japan announced a myriad of deals boosting economic cooperation between the two countries, after a landmark visit to Beijing by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. 500 separate business deals were signed, while an additional 52 memoranda of cooperation in a range of areas were formalized. Just last month, Chinese Ambassador to Japan Kong Xuanyou emphasized China’s commitment to finalizing the Beijing-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) – a free trade agreement with Japan and sixteen other Asian countries by the end of the year, while also expressing Chinese interest in a trilateral free trade agreement between China, Japan, and South Korea, hoping to quell tensions and, “accelerate discussions to lay the groundwork for future development”, per Nikkei Asia.

President Xi intends to reciprocate PM Abe’s visit to Beijing, planning to visit Japan in the spring of 2020, while speculation builds that China may be willing to discuss the issuance of a new, bilateral, political document between the two nations [ii].

This economic warming can be attributed in large part to uncertainty surrounding each country’s respective ties to the U.S. Despite being rivals, Japan and China present the second and third largest economies in the world, and strengthening economic ties seems to be an obvious measure as the two seek to withstand the Trump Administration’s trade measures, and the more direct U.S. – China trade war.

The recent Japan – South Korea trade war has also opened the door for China to grow closer economically with Japan, while simultaneously impeding the ability of the U.S. to maintain a united front against China in the Pacific. The two key U.S. allies have been engaged in a ‘tit-for-tat’ trade dispute since the beginning of July of this year. Most recently, on August 22nd, the dispute turned ugly for the United States and its Asian alliance as the conflict leaked into critical military areas. Seoul announced it was ending the General Security of Military Information Agreement, a bilateral intelligence sharing deal that was implemented in 2016 to deal with North Korea and other regional threats (like China). The current U.S. Administration has not shown any particular interest in adopting a mediation role, at times seemingly not acknowledging the benefits in a unified front in the Pacific. China stands to benefit most, besides North Korea, from this split.

Notwithstanding increasing economic integration and the trade volatility presented by the U.S., there is a ceiling on trust between China and Japan, in large part due to strategic competition and security concerns.

Although China was kind enough to send a military official to brief Japan, the white paper itself was not so kind to its Asian rival. China’s National Defense in the New Era was very clearly focused on the United States – “a clear and detailed 51-page response to the massive shift in U.S. strategy from a focus on counterterrorism and extremism to competition and possible conflict with China and Russia.”[iii] The paper portrays China as attempting to bring Asia together, playing the role of peacemaker against U.S. encroachments in the region that it views as aggressive and destabilizing. Overall, it warns of a growing strategic rivalry between the U.S. and China that will likely shape bilateral relations and beyond for years to come.

Aside from its focus on the U.S., the white paper pays special attention to Japan, asserting: “In an attempt to circumvent the post-war mechanism, Japan has adjusted its military and security policies and increased input accordingly, thus becoming more outward-looking in its military endeavors.” This point is further driven home, as the paper later notes, Japan is “rebalancing and optimizing the structure of their military forces.”[iv]

China also highlights one of the major roadblocks to improving relations with Japan: a territorial dispute over the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, which are also claimed by China, under the name Diaoyu. According to the white paper the “Diaoyu Islands are inalienable parts of the Chinese territory. China exercises its national sovereignty to […] conduct patrols in the waters of Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea.” Japan has consistently denounced China’s involvement in the Senkaku Islands and surrounding waters; the islands present an immensely important strategic position in the Sea of China for Japan (and by extension the U.S.).

Reciprocally, China received even more attention in Japan’s own annual defense review, published on September 26th. The report listed China as Japan’s main security threat, replacing North Korea, of which the latter is suspected to possess nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. 

China found itself in the second chapter of Japan’s defense review (the first chapter dedicated to its chief ally - the United States), a move, analysts say, indicates the PRC is the highest in pecking order of perceived threats. This decision was driven by China’s lack of transparency regarding military strategy, deployment of air and sea assets to the Western Pacific, and more frequent long-range bomber flights and military exercises near Japan. Additionally, Chinese military spending is set to rise to about $177B this year; China has repeatedly rebuffed concerns from Asian countries about its consistently increasing budget. In a media briefing on the review, Defense Minister Taro Kono emphasized: “The reality is that China is rapidly increasing military spending, and so people can grasp that we need more pages.”[v]

Geng Shuang, spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, insisted China would not accept “groundless criticism” of normal defense and military activities.

 The review also more prominently featured Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members and other Indo-Pacific allies, namely Australia and Japan; this move is likely an indicator of Japan attempting to solidify cooperation. Australia and India, in particular, have been vocal in addressing security concerns related to China.

 For Japan’s part, the review indicated that Japan will continue to increase its defense spending (up around 10% over the past seven years), including allotting about $1.1B to buy nine Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighters, interceptor missiles and other equipment from the U.S. This move is seen as both an effort to counter China’s modernization of its own military, and to appease President Trump (and his threats of tariffs).

Bottom Line: As the U.S. continues its current trade policy and seemingly isolates itself on the world stage, it is likely that the economic giants of Asia will inevitably grow closer. Furthermore, depending on how China approaches the current Japanese-South Korean trade war and the role, or lack thereof, China decides to take, the Asian superpower could drive the two countries farther apart or play the role of peacemaker; either choice would weaken the united front the U.S. could take on China’s doorstep.

However, it is very unlikely strategic tensions between China and Japan decline at any point in the future, as Japan seeks to counter expanding Chinese military and strategic power in Asia via a network of U.S. - Indo-Pacific allies, hopes to modernize its own military force and circumvent the “Self-Defense Forces” title, and territorial disputes with China over the Senkaku Islands remain unsolved. 

For these reasons, there is currently a ceiling on cooperation between the two Asian powers, and any transition beyond an economic one is unlikely.

Additional Citations

[i] NHK. “Chinese Military Briefed Japan on Defense Policy: NHK WORLD-JAPAN News.” NHK WORLD. NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation), September 18, 2019. https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20190918_27/. 

[ii] Kato, Shosuke. “China Ready to Declare New Stage in Japan Ties on Xi Visit: Envoy.” Nikkei Asian Review. Nikkei Inc., September 27, 2019. https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/China-ready-to-declare-new-stage-in-Japan-ties-on-Xi-visit-envoy2.

[iii] Cordesman, Anthony H. “China’s New 2019 Defense White Paper: An Open Strategic Challenge to the United States, But One Which Does Not Have to Lead to Conflict.” China’s New 2019 Defense White Paper: An Open Strategic Challenge to the United States, But One Which Does Not Have to Lead to Conflict. Center for Strategic & International Studies, July 24, 2019. https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/190724_China_2019_Defense.pdf.

 [iv] People’s Republic of China. The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. China’s National Defense in the New Era. Beijing: Foreign Languages Press Co. Ltd., July 2019.

[v] Kelly, Tim. “Japan Lists China as Bigger Threat than Nuclear-Armed North Korea.” Reuters. Thomson Reuters, September 27, 2019.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-defence/japan-promotes-china-as-bigger-threat-than-nuclear-armed-north-korea-idUSKBN1WC051.

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