"As you attack, it will be our faces you see, not our backs," the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said while addressing Moscow. The statement, made on February 23, 2022, served as a response to the increasingly dangerous threat that Russian President Vladimir Putin poses to Ukraine. On the following morning, nearly 200,000 Russian troops launched a full-scale invasion. This is the biggest attack between two European nations since the Second World War - an attack that will be felt all over the globe. 

Russia and Ukraine have a strained history characterized by hostility and aggression since the 11th century, and more recently, the threat of weapons of mass destruction. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine had the third-largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. In 1994, the newly sovereign nation signed the Budapest Memorandum with Russia, the U.S, and the U.K. to send their nuclear weapons to Russia for dismantling and assure its independence.

Putin broke the agreement in 2014 by invading Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, which prompted the uprising of a rebellion group in the region with aligning interests. Though the Minsk ceasefire agreement was declared to encourage peace, tensions in the region have heightened since, with Russia supporting the armed rebellion group. Today, Putin’s actions arose in response to Ukraine’s alignment with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). After Ukraine strengthened its ties to the organization, Putin released a set of security demands for NATO in mid-December. The Kremlin asked the organization to return to its pre-1997 structure - an alliance of Western Europe - so that the former Soviet states cannot be a part of the organization. NATO rejected the demands, and the Kremlin’s ambitions have only intensified since. 

Putin launched the attack on Ukraine after publicly supporting the sovereignty of Donetsk and Luhansk, two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine controlled by separatist groups. The Kremlin claims ‘peacekeeping functions’ as the rationale for installing troops in the regions, yet Putin’s actions are far from peaceful. l. The attack violated the Minsk ceasefire agreement. Even further, Moscow sent a clear message that opposition is not welcome. “Anyone who tries to interfere with us, or even more so, to create threats for our country and our people, must know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to such consequences as you have never before experienced in your history,” said Putin on February 24, in an announcement informing the world of the upcoming invasion. “We are ready for any turn of events.” Russia is a powerful actor, with more nuclear warheads than the U.S, the U.K, and France combined, which Putin has put on high alert. Even further, it is a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, giving it the ability to veto potential resolutions. Therefore, attempts to unplatform Russia within the U.N. system will likely be unsuccessful due to Russian opposition. The threat is serious.

Since the initial attack, there have been airstrikes throughout the country, including the capital city of Kyiv. The invasion serves as a chilling parallel to Germany’s blitzkrieg in Poland, the attack that began World War II. It took Nazi Germany only 35 days to seize the country - a process that can easily be replicated in a speedier manner with the aid of modern military tools. According to Putin, the Russian attacks are aimed at military installations, with several airports and air bases already captured. President Zelensky has ordered a 30-day state of emergency in Ukraine. The public is frantically fleeing Kyiv, where air raid sirens can be heard throughout the city.

The international response has been firm yet cautious. European allies and the U.S. have increased their military presence in the region, moving troops to areas around the conflict in order to increase pressure on Putin, as well as sending weapons to the Ukraine and nearby nations. Since Ukraine is not part of NATO, Article 5 of the joint military alliance, which expresses that an attack on one member nation is an attack on all states in the organization, does not apply. Thus, military troops have not been deployed to the country by NATO members, though the organization has activated its Response Force for the first time in history. Additionally, international actors are imposing sanctions against Russia. The European Union (EU) will freeze all Russian assets in the Union and interrupt Russian activity in European market banks. U.S. President Biden has imposed sanctions as well, especially ones targeting Russian technology exports. The most necessary sanctions though are those that will hurt the Russian leaders and elite rather than regular civilians. 

So what does this mean for the future of the international order?

A great threat lies in the expansion of Russian power. Though global leaders are overwhelmingly criticizing Russia's stance, some major nations, such as China, which abstained from the UN vote to condemn Russia, and Iran, continue to support the Kremlin. China has a successful economy and illiberal political aims that hope to strengthen its role in the international sphere, creating a high possibility that the nation may pursue a similar agenda. Beijing has already been pushing its influence onto the international order through strategic projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative.

Who is to say they will stop there? China’s support for actors like Putin also strengthens the fight against the West. For example, Germany has stopped its integration of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia, hoping to hurt the Russian economy. Yet, China has raised fair coverage against the threat of Western opposition by increasing its trade with Moscow over the past decade. The nations reached a novel rank of $140 billion in bilateral trade in 2021. Likewise, Pakistan is considering building a pipeline with Russia. This mitigates the threat that Western sanctions pose. Another worry is the escalation of the conflict. Ukraine borders four NATO members: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. If the fighting were to spill into any of these countries, there is a possibility of a global war.

The crisis has already hit the world by storm. The international economy is hurting. More importantly, the civilian population in the areas of conflict is at great risk. Ukrainian refugees have started fleeing toward Poland in what may be the biggest human displacement since the Syrian Civil War in 2011. Ukraine’s U.N. Ambassador, Sergiy Kyslytsya, had an impassioned response to the crisis at the U.N. Security Council meeting on February 23. "There is no purgatory for war criminals," he said to his Russian counterpart, Vassily Nebenzia. "They go straight to hell, ambassador."

MOST RECENT ARTICLE