Addressing an assembly of Evangelical Brazilians in May of 2021, Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil, boasted that só deus–only God–could remove him from office in the nation’s capital. His blatantly anti-democratic claim was met with outrage, prompting accusations of “aspirações golpistas” (coup aspirations) from civilians, political scientists, and fellow politicians alike. As the President spoke, though, the sea of blue, green, and yellow-clad supporters—attendees of the “March for Jesus”—applauded, compelled by the power of the former Army captain’s words. Despite Bolsonaro's disregard for democracy, his audience was captivated.

The following year, on the bicentennial celebration of Brazil’s independence from Portugal, Bolsonaro again addressed an army of supporters, this time in the capital city of Brasília. In a display of military might, President Bolsonaro arranged for trucks, tanks, and airplanes to accompany the crowd in a procession down the Esplanade of Ministries. For Bolsonaro, aggressive, unapologetic demonstrations such as this one have proven essential to maintaining his image. The President’s supporters praise his honesty and appreciate his unconventional approach to politics. They credit him with being a defender of Christian values, for rescuing Brazil from communism and restoring democracy to the country they are so proud of. “Our flag will never be red,” proclaimed Bolsonaro, unless “we need to bleed over it.”

To the thirty-five percent of the country who support him, Bolsonaro is their freedom. To the forty-five percent currently polling in favor of Lula, the President’s rhetoric—notably, his calls for a “restoration” of the military dictatorship that controlled Brazil for more than two decades—represents a descent into the authoritarianism the nation only recently left behind.

The road to democracy in Brazil has been a long one, marked by military coups, civilian uprisings, and authoritarian regimes. Presidential election by direct popular vote is a relatively novel institution—young enough for many voters to remember a Brazil in which the military controlled the presidency and illiteracy was cause for disenfranchisement. When Bolsonaro’s primary opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party, was first elected president in 2002, he was only the fifth person elected by popular vote to the office since the devastating military coup of 1964.

Lula, a former laborer and champion of worker’s rights, proved tremendously popular; by the time he left Brasília in 2010, he boasted an almost unheard-of approval rating of eighty-seven percent. During his seven years in office, Lula helped pull more than thirty million Brazilians out of poverty through programs like Bolsa Família, which provided financial assistance to disaffected civilians living in the poorest parts of the country. Lula’s outperformance in public opinion compared to previous presidents was a feat largely owed to the radical nature of his policies, many of which focused on improving the welfare of impoverished Brazilians nationwide. His administration saw a thriving domestic economy and a dramatic increase in literacy rates. When he met Barack Obama in 2009, the then-U.S. president referred to Lula as “the most popular politician on earth.”

However, tides changed for Lula in 2017, when he was convicted on charges of money laundering and corruption and sentenced to nine and a half years in prison. The former president was incarcerated for 580 days before the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court ruled his imprisonment unlawful, and a 2021 ruling by Supreme Court Justice Edson Fachin restored Lula’s political rights, allowing him to run for reelection in 2022. 

To Bolsonaro’s supporters, Lula’s conviction, despite being ruled unlawful, is proof of his corruption. This aligns with the narrative pushed by Brazil’s Partido Liberal (Liberal Party, or PL), with whom Bolsonaro is most recently affiliated. Although Lula maintains a ten-point lead over his opponent, many Bolsonaro supporters refuse to accept the poll results. Bolsonaro has attacked Brazil’s electronic election system, claiming it is “fraudulent” and that poll results showing him trailing Lula are “a lie.”

Shortly after Bolsonaro’s controversial parade in Brasília, Lula denounced his opponent’s leveraging of Independence Day—in theory, a unifying holiday—as a tool for political gain. “I never used the national day, the day for the Brazilian people, the most important day because of independence,” said Lula, “as a political campaign tool.”

The co-opting of Brazilian national identity by Bolsonaro has proven to be an issue since his election in 2018. As a result, growing associations between expressions of Brazilian national identity and support for Bolsonaro have deepened the polarization already permeating Brazil’s political and cultural climate. Similar to the ways in which far-right groups have attempted to appropriate the Brazilian flag and its colors as symbols of their movement, Bolsonaro has sought to parallel the freeing of Brazil from colonial rule to the freeing of his supporters from “Lula’s communism.” 

Much of Bolsonaro’s support arises from the Brazilian working class, a group historically overlooked and mistreated by wealthy decision-makers in the capital. His inflammatory, anti-establishment rhetoric succeeded in winning him the support of many impoverished Brazilians, a portion of the vote crucial in catapulting him into power when he was elected President in 2018. However, the impressive repertoire of civilian-oriented policy that won Lula such tremendous approval during his presidency presents an undeniable threat to the loyalty Bolsonaro relies on from his working class supporters.

Lula currently boasts a notable two-digit lead over Bolsonaro ahead of the upcoming October elections. Political stunts put on by Bolsonaro, such as his appropriation of Brazilian Independence Day as a tool for political gain seem, if anything, to provide his opponent with a chance to exercise his level-headedness and political capability. Still, Bolsonaro said himself that só deus can remove him from office. The power the Brazilian people hold with their votes is undeniable, but October’s election will decide whether Brazil will support a change from its “God-appointed” leader.

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