Ethiopia and the Implications of its New State of Emergency
On November 2, Ethiopian Attorney General Gedion Timothewos announced Ethiopia would enter a state of emergency due to the looming threat of Tigrayan forces. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) is the ruling party of the northern region of Ethiopia, and by November 2, they had taken control of the cities Dessie and Kombolcha, both of which are en route to the capital city of Addis Ababa. As of November 5, the TPLF were within a day's drive to the capital city and had threatened to overtake the current government. There are multiple obstacles the TPLF would have to overcome to launch a coup, such as fighting through the hostile territory that remains between them and the capital Addis Ababa.
The current conflict between Ethiopia and Tigray has been occurring since November of 2020 The crisis partially stems from the nature of Ethiopia’s system of government. BBC News explains that “since 1994, Ethiopia has had a federal system in which different ethnic groups control the affairs of 10 regions.” After a military regime lost power in 1991, the TPLF led the four-party coalition that came into power. Ethiopia prospered economically under this coalition, but discontent and protests arose due to concerns over human rights abuses executed by the governing coalition. Following these concerns, Prime Minister Abiy came into power, a rise that has brought criticism on account of corruption accusations and human rights abuses.
Despite similarities, Tigray’s leaders viewed the centralization of power under Abiy’s reforms as a threat to the federal system in Ethiopia. This led to many instances of tension that escalated to violence between Abiy’s government and Tigray’s administration. These include Tigray holding their own regional election, an illegal move that Ethiopia responded to by cutting ties and suspending funding to Tigray. Tigray stated that the act of cutting ties was viewed as a declaration of war from Ethiopia, and the escalation came to a high point when “Tigrayan forces were accused of attacking army bases to steal weapons.’” Prime Minister Abiy launched a military response on November 4, 2020, and the current civil war has existed since. There have been an estimated over 100,000 deaths and reports of sexual violence, massacres, and other forms of harm throughout the conflict, which does not show signs of improving if a coup is successful.
The state of emergency that was put into place on November 2, will enter effect immediately and extend over the next six months. In the state of emergency, the Ethiopian government will be able to “impose a curfew, order citizens into military training, disrupt transport services and travel, suspend licenses of media outlets, detain indefinitely anyone suspected of having links with a terrorist group” along with banning unauthorized public gatherings and punishing any expressions of opposition. Additionally, the government has the ability to install military leadership into local administrations and temporarily disband them.
While the TPLF gains territory, the government of Ethiopia may call upon neighboring Eritrea for help. Beyond this, many citizens of Ethiopia are ready to fight themselves. A 30-year-old employee at a petrol station in Ethiopia named Teferi Mekonnen says, "I don't think TPLF will make it to Addis Ababa. I am not scared at all… If the government gives me a weapon and asks me to fight, I will. No one is willing to see them back." In this fight, the government has encouraged citizens to take up defense for themselves and their neighborhoods and cities.
The international community is hoping for a ceasefire and peace talks but have been unable to mediate any so far, as no leaders on either side have expressed willingness towards participating in peace talks. A bloc of East African countries, Intergovernmental Authority on Development, as well as the United Nations have called for peace, stating, “the stability of Ethiopia and the wider region is at stake.” While there have been attempts to prevent an attack on Addis Ababa by the U.S. Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, it is important now more than ever that the international community moves beyond simple posturing to prevent greater tragedy from occurring.