Right on the heels of filling its last reservoir, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) seeks to be a major achievement in the country’s infrastructure and to become a major energy provider for the country. Having already generated roughly 750 megawatts of power within its first year of operation, it will provide for a large portion of a population previously without access and generate electricity that can be sold to neighboring countries and will increase revenue for Ethiopia’s GDP. Upon full completion, the dam’s expected capacity could reach up to 6,500 megawatts of energy.

After a decade of construction, the dam, upon completion, will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in the African continent. Its creation and impact is touted by the Ethiopian government as being an essential megaproject to provide electricity for its population of over 110 million. Having started construction in 2011, the government has spent roughly 5 billion USD on the megaproject. It has also partnered with other companies who will and have supplied turbines, generators and more. The nation hopes to use this energy to power 60 percent of the population, which will also sustain its manufacturing industries. In addition to its power capabilities, the project is hoping to reduce seasonal flooding in Sudan by a length of 40 km.

Yet, considering its size, the project doesn’t come without shortfalls. Both Egypt and Sudan will have to consider the impact it will have on their economy and public health, resulting in a potential national security threat. Given the construction of the dam lies on the Nile River, which flows down through both Egypt and Sudan, the two countries are expected to experience continuous droughts and water shortages with the potential filling of the nations’ reservoirs and the artificial blockage a dam presents.

Ecosystem Fallout

A 2021 study found that in the area surounding Ethiopia, the construction of the dam is expected to flood natural habitats and threaten primarily the local river and stream biodiversity. Additionally, the dam will cause a serious drop in water quality due to the reduction of oxygenation and dilution of pollutants in the stagnant reservoir. Changes in the river will result in fluctuations in water temperature, chemical composition, and more, with an additional consequence in which native species will face difficulties adapting to shifts in their environment.

Agriculture in Sudan would also encounter risks as the river’s mineral-rich sediment is predicted to be blocked by the GERD. Thus, the fertility of their agricultural lands will be negatively affected, and instead, farmers will have to increase their reliance on the use of fertilizer, like what has already happened in Egypt. Increased use of fertilizers will in turn decrease the water quality reaching Lake Naser, which is considered the water bank of Egypt, and provides fertile land for farming and is its main source of drinking water. Not only will the dam likely block minerals from flowing downstream, but it will also cause issues with eutrophication - a process in which the buildup of nutrients in stagnant water will result in the loss of oxygen.

In terms of public health, new man-made water bodies can cause water-related diseases such as malaria and bilharzia. Infectious diseases can spread in the areas of water reservoirs. The former of the two diseases previously mentioned has infamously devastated the entire continent, with 90% of all cases coming from the Sub-Saharan region.

An Issue of National Security?

With the anticipated ecological fallouts that will come with the construction of the dam, Egypt and Sudan are sounding their alarms and considering the by-products of the GERD’s construction. Both countries, which the Nile River flows through, rely on it for agricultural purposes.

There are increased worldwide concerns of water scarcity, but in already relatively dry nations, these concerns are magnified. Thus far, negotiations between the three nations have yet to reach an agreement which will satisfy all parties. Egypt and Sudan claim that the dam will continue to have a negative effect on their national affairs. In a recent interview, Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah El Sisi has stated that “no one will touch Egypt’s water.”

The country’s Foreign Minister at the recent UN General Assembly emphasized that the three countries must reach a legally binding agreement so that it maintains its right for access to water. Ethiopia maintains that it isn’t required or obliged to negotiate with either nation. Since the toppling of Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir, the nation has maintained the same position as Egypt. It remains to be seen if any country decides to escalate the situation with military action, and thus start a new armed conflict.

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