Current tensions between Serbia and Kosovo remain high again, despite a supposed resolution to the two nations’ dispute over car license plates facilitated by the EU. On November 24, 2022, Kosovo and Serbia had reached an agreement: Serbia would stop issuing license plates with Kosovo cities’ denominations, and Kosovo would not demand that vehicles with Serbian plates be re-registered. Nonetheless, Serbia has apparently already violated the November agreement by issuing illegal Serbian license plates starting in 2023. 

The decades-long license-plate dispute between Serbia and Kosovo is only a mere representation of the larger issue at hand: Serbia refusing to recognize Kosovo’s independence. Further, Russia and the West are both taking advantage of the issue to exert their influence in the region — Russia backing Serbia and the U.S. and EU backing Kosovo.

Serbia has been trying to regain control of Kosovo since it broke away from Serbia after the war in 1998-99, which ended with an 11-week NATO bombing. Kosovo officially declared its independence in 2008, but the Serbian constitution currently declares that Kosovo is still a part of Serbia. Several nations, including Russia and China also do not recognize Kosovo’s independence, while the U.S. does. An overwhelming majority of Serbs living in Kosovo remain citizens of Serbia. Serbia also continues to operate a parallel state system for Kosovo Serbs, including issuing Serbian vehicle license plates for Kosovo cities. 

In 2011, Kosovo and Serbia reached their first agreement over the license plate dispute. Kosovo authorities would issue license plates marked ‘RKS’ for the Republic of Kosovo, which acknowledges Kosovo’s statehood, as well as license plates marked ‘KS,’ denoting simply ‘Kosovo.’ This was aimed at encouraging Serbs in north Kosovo to start using Kosovo-issued plates, rather than Serbian ones. In 2016, Kosovo extended the validity of KS plates for another five years, making the Serbian-issued license plates for Kosovo cities illegal. In September 2021, the agreement expired, and Serbian-issued license plates for cities in the north of Kosovo were confiscated. In October 2021, a temporary sticker system was put in place, requiring drivers with Serbian vehicle registration plates to cover the state emblem on them with a sticker to enter Kosovo and vice versa. 

Following this back-and-forth, the EU intervened. Peter Stano, the EU’s lead spokesperson for foreign affairs and security policy, announced that they expected the countries to “make progress” on a decision by April 21, 2022. However, Violeta Haxholli from the Kosovo Democratic Institute said that the two countries had not made any progress on the negotiations that started six months prior and added that “the EU naturally feels tired by this process.” 

In an attempt to resolve the issue, the EU put pressure on Serbia by linking the progress in the dispute with the advancement of their goal of joining the European bloc. In 2018, the final draft of the European Commission’s Western Balkans strategy predicted that Serbia could join the EU by 2025. France and Germany especially have encouraged Serbia to allow Kosovo to join international institutions and organizations, including the UN, in exchange for Serbia’s membership to the EU. However, Vučić has said that “such a solution was unacceptable to Belgrade.” There has been no recent update about Serbia’s movement towards joining the EU, and it seems unlikely that it will join anytime soon. 

In fact, Vučić has remained adamant on Serbia’s position towards Kosovo. In a speech delivered on October 8, 2022, Vučić announced: "We will stick to [our Kosovo policy] until the damage caused to Serbia is so much greater that we would have to accept a different reality," Vučić said. "Maybe a future government will make a different decision." Further, Serbia’s position is aided by Russia’s continued opposition to Kosovo’s independence. Russia holds soft power in the region, due in part to its Orthodox faith but also its military ties with Serbia. Serbia has recently demonstrated its alliance with Russia economically and politically, by not implementing sanctions during the war in Ukraine and not denouncing Russia.

Despite the deadlock between Serbia and Kosovo, the EU has still attempted to resolve the disputes. On November 23, 2022, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell tweeted “We have a deal! Very pleased to announce that Chief Negotiators of #Kosovo & #Serbia under EU-facilitation have agreed on measures to avoid further escalation and to fully concentrate on the proposal on normalisation of their relations.” Although Kosovo did not at first accept the deal, it returned to negotiations after pressure from the U.S., a key ally, according to BBC Balkans correspondent Guy Delauney. Further, Kosovo Deputy Prime Minister Bislimi explained that reaching an agreement on license plates doesn’t mean Serbia is recognizing Kosovo as an independent state.

Despite negotiation efforts and EU intervention, there is no end in sight to this dispute as long as Serbia refuses to acknowledge Kosovo’s independence. Although a dispute over license plates may seem trivial, it only represents the larger conflict at hand, further complicated by Russia and the EU vying for power in the region.

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