Moldova faces internal and external threats, as its proximity to the war in Ukraine and destabilization plots from Russia have led to an impeded airspace and economy. The Moldovan government accuses Moscow of destabilization by attempting to install a pro-Russian government in its place. While there does not appear to be a direct or immediate military threat from Russia, the United States has publicly agreed with Moldovan authorities that there is a rising danger of fabricated insurrection due to Russian interference. These recent moves by Russia are likely linked to the fact that Moldova was granted candidate status to join the EU in June 2022, at the same time as Ukraine. Russia’s active military presence in Ukraine and subtle action to undermine the Moldovan government comes from a long history of Russian interference and dominion in these two countries and their continuing interest in eliminating any threats to their influence in the region.

In an attempt to counter the insurgency threat, the Moldovan Intelligence and Security Service (SIS) has continued to monitor the situation. The SIS went as far as to expel two foreign nationals from the country at the tail end of February due to evidence they were involved in efforts to undermine the government and promote a sentiment within the country that the residents would be better cared for under Russian-affiliated leadership. 

In another attempt to incite public discontent, Russia blocked off natural gas supplies to Moldova last year. The effect of this blockage was felt across Europe as several countries, including Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all suffered energy crises. However, Moldova resided in a more precarious position than many other countries as it directly neighbors Ukraine and was a former Soviet Republic in the United Socialist Soviet Republic (U.S.S.R.). Whatever the outcome of the Ukraine war may be, Moldova will encounter the consequences of that outcome much sooner than countries further to the west in Europe. 

However, Russia’s attempts to fabricate civil unrest continued into this past month. On Sunday, March 12, footage of large crowds gathering in the capital city of Chișinău gathered attention on various social media outlets, appearing to depict mass protests against the current government. However, Moldovan police forces discovered and arrested many people who had been promised financial rewards in return for help with organizing mass disorder. Andrei Spinu, Secretary-General for the Moldovan Presidential Office, insisted "what happened today in the center of the capital is not a protest,” and further claimed, "We have to say bluntly, it was yet another failed attempt by Russia to destabilize Moldova.”

The Moldovan government has increased security on its borders and limited the influx of people from Belarus, Montenegro, and Serbia last week by banning nationals from those countries from entering unless they could provide and have approved a “need” to enter the country. Andrian Cheptonar, a member of the Party of Action and Solidarity, blames the need for increased scrutiny on Russia’s inability to garner authentic anti-government sentiment within Moldova: “Now Russia is diversifying its modus operandi. Since they couldn’t mobilize enough locals to have violent riots, they have appealed to foreigners.” Even among the locals who have appeared in demonstrations, investigations after the fact revealed many attendees were paid to protest. 

This is far from the first occasion on which Russia has supported dissident forces in Moldova. In the region of Transnistria, Moscow continues to support rebel groups and use the region for stationing its own troops. Transnistria broke away from Moldova in 1992. However, it is still legally considered a part of Moldova, and the international community does not recognize its self-declared statehood. Russia’s continued military and economic support for Transnistria is indicative of its long-term disrespect for Moldovan sovereignty and interest in destabilizing the Moldovan government. 

In another attempt to incite public unrest, Russia blocked off natural gas supplies to Moldova last year. The effect of this blockage was felt across Europe as several countries, including Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany, all suffered energy crises. However, Moldova resided in a more precarious position than many other countries as it directly neighbors Ukraine and was a former Soviet Republic in the United Socialist Soviet Republic (U.S.S.R.). Whatever the outcome of the Ukraine war may be, Moldova will encounter the consequences of that outcome much sooner than countries further to the west in Europe. 

In February 2023, Ukraine discovered a Russian plan detailing Moscow’s intent to destroy Moldova with Russian intelligence. Despite the allegations, Russia continues to deny any involvement in a destabilization plot. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed the tense relationship between Moscow and Chișinău was due to the Moldovan government’s state of “anti-Russian hysteria.” Peskov has also blamed Ukraine for driving a wedge between Moldova and Russia. 

The Moldovan president, Maia Sandu, has expressed a concentrated determination to prevent any destabilization plots, whether genuine or false, from rocking the country. She has encouraged “maximum vigilance” and reminds citizens that, in an information attack such as this, the people must trust their government to avoid societal collapse and illegitimate control from foreign forces. Russian interference cannot be expected to end. Therefore, the Moldovan populace must organize a deliberate effort to fight disinformation campaigns and promote their own agency as a sovereign nation. Moldova could face heightened military action from Russia in the coming months and must prepare to the fullest capacity to defeat this threat to retain its independence. 

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