Over the last several years, large exporters in the Middle East have faced the rising pressure of the global push toward renewable energy, having amassed an enormous amount of wealth from the oil industry since the mid-twentieth century. At the moment, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, and Iraq are the world’s largest oil exporters, in that order — although as the rest of the world begins to sanction Russian oil imports in response to its invasion of Ukraine, the rankings may shift. 

The burning of fossil fuels such as oil in order to generate electricity, provide running water, and power automobiles, is one of the leading causes of climate change and global warming. The Middle East in particular has struggled with desertification, water scarcity, and extreme heatwaves in recent decades. According to The Atlas of Economic Complexity, 41.56% of crude petroleum oil exports in 2019 came from the list above, minus Russia. With almost half of the world’s oil reserves contained in the region, the Middle East lies in a unique position to either help or hinder global efforts to switch toward renewable energy technologies.

The World Economic Forum reports that, in 2019, Saudi Arabia implemented a $28 billion renewable energy investment program, complete with loans to support clean energy projects. Workers involved in industries ranging from manufacturing to agriculture, to retail were all encouraged to apply by the fund’s director. The move came as a part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 plan for redefining the Gulf state’s economy in a post- oil-dependent world. 

Last March, the Crown Prince announced his plan to plant 10 billion trees in the next few decades and generate 50% of Saudi Arabia’s energy from renewable sources by 2030. However, Climate Home News noted that “the government did not say whether it would produce and export any less oil while powering its own economy with cheap solar power,” highlighting the role the region would continue to play in global energy sourcing regardless of its own energy plans. The article added that although the promise to plant trees was appreciated by climate experts, it remains unclear how Saudi Arabia would successfully “plant 10 billion trees in the third-driest country on earth.”

Jordan, on the other hand, has had more success with renewable energy projects. The World Economic Forum reported that with more than 300 days of sunshine per year, solar energy has become favored by the state, most notably with the 2016 opening of Shams Ma’an Power Plant, the second-largest solar farm in the region. A plant was also placed in the Za’atari refugee camp, providing electricity to 80 thousand Syrian refugees.

Last November, it was announced that as a result of struggling with water scarcity, Jordan was expected to sign an agreement with Israel to trade 200 million cubic meters (7.06 billion cubic feet) of desalinated water with Israel in return for 600 megawatts of electricity from a UAE-funded solar plant placed in Jordan. Such an agreement would be a historical marker of cooperation — although hundreds took to the streets of Amman in protest against normalizing ties with Israel given its ongoing occupation of Palestine. 

According to several leading environmental experts, however, the MENA region remains a long way away from where it should be at this stage in the climate crisis. In a 2020 article published in the online scientific journal Environmental Science and Pollution Research, the authors point to the trend of urbanization and economic growth in the Middle East leading to further environmental damage. The progress made thus far in renewable energy technologies has not come close to offsetting the consequences of continuing to engage in the fossil fuel industry. 

Notably, the study reports that the region has “the greatest potential for renewable energy consumption in the world and is likely to be the most vulnerable to the horrendous effects of climate change.” With the Paris Agreement of 2015, global praise of Swedish teenage climate activist and Time Magazine’s 2019 Person of the Year Greta Thunberg, and the media hype surrounding U.S. Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez’s proposed Green New Deal — which contains ideas now mainstream in progressive liberalism — it is clear that much of the rest of the world is hopeful of moving away from unsustainable energy consumption as soon as possible. 

Middle Eastern oil investors risk being left behind if they do not decide to redirect their massive funds toward renewable energy. The oil trade is a volatile business, and economies heavily dependent on its success are in turn significantly affected by its failure or entanglement with political interests. Following the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in a Saudi consulate, then U.S. President Donald Trump resisted the condemnation of the Crown Prince for his probable involvement in the interests of preserving the two countries’ mutual oil trade and low gas prices. Still, the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia remains strained, especially in light of the latter’s refusal to increase oil production to combat globally rising gas prices with Russian oil now sanctioned off the market. 

A global switch to dependence on renewable energy could mean the end of having to choose between preserving a political/economic alliance today and protecting the environment tomorrow. As a region rampant with human rights violations and undemocratic leaders, the Middle East has been able to use its natural resources as a shield against proper criticism. Renewable energy is more easily domestically produced — and therefore could end up being the solution to more than just the planet’s environmental issues.

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