Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine’s capital Kyiv has validified a worst-case scenario to NATO and its allies. On January 12, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Moldova’s President Maia Sandu made a joint statement declaring mutual support for each country’s sovereignty. President Sandu has also condemned Russia for its attacks, calling it a “flagrant violation of international norms.” 

But the same sentiment does not hold true for Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway state in Moldova. As a sliver of land located between Moldova and Ukraine, Transnistria could potentially act as a vital spot for further Russian military buildup against Ukraine. Transnistria has a population of 450,000 people, the majority of whom identify as Russian. The region has already been touched by Russia as Moscow currently holds over a thousand troops there, as well as military equipment in the largest ammunition depot in Eastern Europe. If Moscow chooses to do so, Russia could potentially link up with pro-Russian troops in the breakaway region to block Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea coast by joining its forces in Transnistria and Crimea. 

When Moldova left the USSR in August 1991, a separatist republic called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic—later renamed Transnistria—emerged. The region is only recognized as independent by other breakaway states. Nostalgia for the Soviet Union is immensely present in the rebel region, with Russian flags flying over Soviet-style architecture and statues of Vladimir Lenin erected in the streets. After Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula in 2014, the breakaway state’s parliament president requested to join Moscow. Russia denied its request but continues to supply Transnistria with a myriad of exports in order to make it highly dependent on the country’s financial assistance. Such dependence deepens Transnistria’s pro-Russian stance, establishing closer ties with Russia whilst moving it away from Moldova’s hold. Although not recognized by Moscow as an independent state, “it has used the region to exert an element of control over Moldova.” Russia has rejected NATO and the U.S.’s calls to remove troops from Transnistria and recently utilized the region to stage military drills.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may serve as the perfect opportunity for Transnistria’s reunification with Moscow. Although Moldova does not hold much strategic importance nor valuable resources that Russia could use to its benefit, prospects of a Russian sphere of influence could make Transnistria a valid candidate for expansion. Following in the footsteps of Crimea, a proposed Russian annexation of Transnistria could propel Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions forward and spark a frozen conflict that has existed in the region for decades.

"At the moment, we're not seeing any unusual activity in [Transnistria], but we are worried that could change," said Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu.

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