The Table of Six, an alliance of six major opposition parties in Turkey, has announced its detailed plan to drastically change the country should they win the upcoming presidential election in May. President Tayyip Erdogan has been in office since 2003 and has amassed near complete control over the media and the government structures. The opposition alliance promises a future with separation of powers, heightened quality of democracy, and a restructuring of the parliamentary government. Before achieving any of these goals, the six parties have to come together to choose a candidate to replace Erdogan. With prospective candidates vying for more power in the alliance, this first decision may prove enough to destabilize the opposition before the election takes place.

The alliance is composed of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), İYİ (Good) Party, Felicity Party, Democrat Party, Future Party, and DEVA Party. The decision to unite was initiated by the leader of the social democratic CHP, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a potential presidential candidate. Also called the “Nation Alliance,” the Table of Six’s victory could mean the restoration of a healthy democracy in Turkey. Erdogan presents a challenge to the stable transition of power, rights for women, and balance of power in the government. The opposition claims they will make sweeping changes to alter the current circumstances, however many hurdles are present before any victory is possible.

One hurdle lies in the lack of security in the electoral process itself. Recent amendments to the constitution have limited the ability for the opposition to monitor the election. Beyond that, Erdogan has a highly developed voter base and has 20 years of experience to campaign on that the opposition lacks. Furthermore, Erdogan’s campaign has access to public resources, and a large portion of the media is either controlled directly by Erdogan or indirectly by members of business allied with him. This control of the media similarly decreases the validity of opinion polls that might gauge the likelihood of a tight presidential race.

This is far from the first attempt to remove Erdogan from power. In July 2016, the Turkish government blamed Fethullah Gulen, a preacher for the “Hizmet religious movement” for an attempted coup. Gulen used to work closely with Erdogan before corruption scandals amidst the Gulenists were revealed in 2013. In the crackdown that ensued after civilians banded together to prevent the coup, Erdogan tightened his grip on the country under the argument of ensuring safety from the ‘Gulenists.’ Due to the opportunity the coup presented to strengthen Erdogan’s own power,  some believe Gulen’s claims that Erdogan faked the coup to create a dictatorship. While these claims have dubious legitimacy, Erdogan’s increased control over the country following the coup does not paint him in a completely innocent light.

More than just Turkey’s democratic fate hangs in the balance of the election. Turkey is one of the few NATO countries to retain ties with Russia after their invasion of Ukraine, likely due to Erdogan’s close relationship with Russian president Vladimir Putin. In fact, the two countries have grown more economically closer since the start of the Ukraine war. If the Table of Six can manage to beat Erdogan in the presidential elections, or even rattle the parliament with a higher percentage of opposition members, the people of Ukraine may see more Turkish support. However, if Erdogan manages to retain his power on Turkish politics, Europe will feel his continued friendship with Putin through the strains on the economy and resource supply, coupled with Turkey’s lack of cooperation with its NATO allies. 

In the event that the opposition wins, the world will feel the impacts of 20 years of autocratic rule crumbling away. Whatever the outcome may be, the balance of power in Europe will resettle dramatically with the coming elections.

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