Two coups d’état in the past year mark a pivotal inflection point in Burkina Faso’s political turmoil, precipitating heightened precariousness as the country faces a rising militant Islamist threat. A series of attacks orchestrated by jihadists rocked Burkina Faso, leaving dozens of soldiers and civilians dead or missing. These attacks incentivized military officers to oust the current junta leader Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba and replace him with Captain Ibrahim Traoré by way of a second coup on September 30, 2022. Traoré, the 34-year-old head of a local artillery unit of Burkina Faso’s Armed Forces, proclaimed himself the new head of state and justified his violent seizure of power with the decadence of Burkina Faso’s security situation. 

Back in January 2022, Damiba held an earlier coup, similarly promising that he would address the country’s security crisis. Mutinous troops, led by Damiba, took control of Burkina Faso, deposing President Roch Kaboré, dismantling the government and parliament, suspending the constitution, and blocking borders, due to Kabore’s “incapacity” to handle jihadist violence.

Though, according to Traoré, Damiba was also unable to quell an emerging Islamist threat in the north and east that has forced over 2 million people – roughly 10 percent of the general populace – from their homes. Ultimately, Damiba’s failure to deliver on promises of curbing the spread of jihadist extremism, unemployment, hunger, and displacement – all of which have worsened this past year – during his ephemeral eight-month term has led to public outcry for his removal. 

The coups symbolize a continuation of regime instability that has persisted since 1960, when the country first gained independence from France. The last time Burkina Faso experienced a proper long-term president was under Thomas Sankara, who rose to power in 1983. Sankara managed to command office until his assassination in 1987, when Blaise Compaoré and his forces staged a coup. Compaoré would effectively serve as Burkina Faso’s second president from 1987 to 2014, but his ascension to power is still highly decried by civilians today. This past April 2022, he was found guilty of complicity in Sankara’s assassination. Compaoré’s reign lasted for 27 years, until he was also deposed by Kaboré in 2014 for wanting to alter the constitution in order to remain in power.

The frequency of violent regime change and manifestations of democratic backsliding in Burkina Faso, compounded by external humanitarian issues, like food insecurity, economic downturn, dearth of natural resources, and exacerbating climate disasters, means the future of Burkina Faso is increasingly perilous. Traoré’s platform has turned on strong assertions of restoring security and preventing more conflict. But the nation has yet to witness the ‘positive’ effects of the coup or any marked differences from the former ruler, as the coup has diverted valuable resources and personnel from the vanguard of security and humanitarian crises engulfing the country. This includes, and is not limited to, more than 1,500 violent events and 3,800 fatalities reported in 2022. The coup also resulted in the suspension of ongoing quintessential military operations in some of the most vulnerable zones in the Sahel.

While the junta has been committed to the upkeep of an excellent propaganda stunt in associating its seizure of power with the ‘consensus’ of the people, it is undoubtedly ruling by decree. The junta’s actions since gaining power reveal little to no strategic planning and have further entrenched military rule in a country that is still emerging from the 27-year military rule turned autocracy under Compaoré. The absence of a people-centered constitutional framework, oversight of the military and political leadership, or clear direction for addressing the country’s security threats suggests Burkina Faso’s instability is likely to carry on. Another violent regime change could be in the cards for Burkina Faso. 

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