After a costly twenty years of conflict, the Taliban has once again regained control of Afghanistan. Just two weeks before the United States was set to withdraw all troops, the extremist militant group quickly advanced through the country and captured Kabul, seizing control of the government after Western-backed president Ashraf Ghani fled the country. 

With the Taliban in power, thousands of panicked Afghans scrambled to flee the country in fearful anticipation of a harsh reimposition of Sharia law. Afghans and foreign nationals flooded  the Kabul airport in hopes to escape the oppressive Taliban regime and find refuge elsewhere. While most Afghan refugees are being displaced to the neighboring states of Iran and Pakistan, concerns regarding a present-day repeat of the 2015 European refugee crisis have been pushed to the forefront of the international stage, inducing fear of a mass exodus of Afghan refugees pouring into Europe. 

Even before the Taliban gained control of the government, Afghans ranked among the top nationalities seeking asylum in the European Union (EU). By 2020, Afghans were the most highly represented nationality amongst all sea arrivals to Greece. Trends are expected to continue in a positive direction as Afghans flee the country at increasing rates. 

Armin Laschet, the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union, said that “we should not send the signal that Germany can take in everyone in need. The focus must be on humanitarian aid on site, unlike in 2015.” Just across the border in France, President Emmanuel Macron has solidified the stance that France must protect itself against a major migratory flow, while also arguing that Europe should work closely with transit countries, like Turkey, and should encourage them to take refugees in. 

Austrian leaders have suggested creating deportation centers so that Afghans who are denied asylum can be deported back by the EU. Chancellor Sebastian Kurz remarked that Turkey would be a “more suitable place for Afghan refugees.” Furthermore, Notis Mitarachi, the Migration Minister of Greece, said that they would not be the “gateway for irregular flows into the EU.” Similar to Austria and France, Greece has shifted the burden of responsibility over to Turkey. 

Turkey’s foreign minister, however, insisted that Turkey would not house a new wave of migration and would “not be a border guard or a refugee camp of the EU.” Turkey has already absorbed over three million Syrian refugees into the country since 2015, but public opinion is tilted against future arrivals of any refugee group. A recent survey showed that three quarters of those surveyed in Turkey supported the closing of Turkey’s borders and the deportation of undocumented foreign nationals. Refugees in Turkey have historically been viewed as an economic burden and are blamed for the rising inflation and unemployment rates within the country. 

In order to prevent an influx of Afghans escaping Taliban rule, Turkey has started to reinforce its border with Iran by erecting a 155 kilometer wall, which the country plans to extend further. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said that Turkey has no “duty, responsibility, or obligation to be Europe’s refugee warehouse.” 

The discourse surrounding migration has been met with heavy anxiety. As previously mentioned, the increasing trend in hostility towards migrants and refugees can be connected back to the 2015 migration crisis, in which Europe saw a massive influx of over one million migrants and refugees, most of whom were fleeing Syria. The mass migration stretched welfare and security systems, fuelling support for far right and nationalist groups such as the Alternative for Germany. Given these  events, European leaders desperately want to prevent another migration crisis.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was once known for welcoming Syrian refugees into Germany in 2015, but has recently taken a different stance. In an August press conference, she said “we cannot solve all of these problems by taking everyone in.” Currently, countries like Germany have become more conservative in their approach to migratory policy. 

This conservative approach to migration has become widespread across the EU. Before the Taliban even seized full control of Afghanistan, European countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Denmark, Germany, and Greece were urging the EU executive to continue deporting Afghans with rejected asylum claims. In a letter to the European Commission, the six EU countries said that “stopping returns sends the wrong signal and is likely to motivate even more Afghan citizens to leave their home for the EU.” This rhetoric reflects the migration policies in place since 2015, displaying how the EU desperately seeks to prevent a repeat of 2015. Along with other preemptive measures, the EU has already developed a more securitized mandate to its eastern borders, gearing up for massive expansion.  

As states are actively working to prevent another 2015 migration crisis, much can be gleaned from that period. In response to the crisis starting in 2015,  The New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants was unanimously adopted in 2016 with the commitment towards “equitable burden sharing” and the provision of greater resources to displaced persons. 2015 has made it clear that in order to see a more efficient and humane response to the arrival of refugees, European states must cooperate and coordinate with one another, establishing mechanisms for refugees to come into Europe through orderly and legal means (e.g. humanitarian, student, and work visas and refugee resettlement efforts). Back then, European solidarity to the refugee crisis was invaluable to solving the consequences of mass migration, and the same is true for today. Since 2015, Europe has made strong efforts to repel asylum seekers, but in order to see a movement towards the restoration of international peace and security, European states must reacknowledge their shared responsibility to manage large waves of refugees. 

Managing these large waves, however, does not necessarily mean taking everyone in. There should be steps towards humanitarian aid on site. While many are fleeing Afghanistan, there has also been a sharp increase in internal displacement. This year alone, Afghanistan has seen 550,000 Afghans displaced within the country, most of whom are women and girls. 2015 has shown that elements of emergency response and integration are most effective when instituted at the local level. European states, while not wholly committed to taking refugees in, should play their part in supporting local NGOs in Afghanistan so that they are better equipped to provide Afghans with healthcare, housing, education, and social services. 

Though a repeat of 2015 is not absolute, what can be foreseen is a widespread need for refugee assistance and humanitarian aid on Afghanistan’s borders. While much of Europe is hesitant to allow waves of refugees in, cooperation with the rest of the international community will be invaluable to ensure that peace, security, and protection is guaranteed for all Afghans. 

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