At this point, you have probably heard a lot about the many disastrous consequences of a no-deal Brexit: from a potential economic recession in the UK as predicted by The Office for Budget Responsibility, to blocked ports and shortages of imported food and drugs. Just last week, the Supreme Court ruled that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament for 5 weeks was unlawful, and the MPs returned to Westminster. With the October 31st deadline fast approaching and a newly passed law to stop a no-deal Brexit, if no deal is negotiated by October 19th and MPs don’t vote in favor of a no-deal leave, then Prime Minister Boris Johnson is required to ask the EU for a Brexit delay. This week, the government has updated the legal text of a potential Brexit deal, including a “customs clearance zones” to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic, ahead of a crucial EU summit on October 17th, but there is no guarantee that the EU will agree to this new detailed plan. 

However, these are not the only consequences and difficulties of leaving the EU; one of the issues that aren’t as frequently discussed is the fact that Brexit would be very detrimental to British national security. No matter how much those on the “leave” side argue that Brexit would make Great Britain more stable and secure, there is strong evidence to suggest otherwise. Former national security advisors have directly stated that a no-deal Brexit would be a “very serious and immediate problem for British national security”. Research conducted at the Birmingham City University Centre for Brexit studies shows that leaving the EU will exclude Great Britain from diplomatic relations and intervention in international issues that are mostly facilitated by EU structures, such as dialogue with Russia, negotiations regarding the Syrian refugee crisis, and resolving tensions with Turkey. In addition, Brexit will make procedures pertaining to crime-related intelligence-sharing and immigration policy less effective and much more time consuming, since many of these law enforcement activities are carried out through EU channels across Europe. Another layer to these issues is the general election that is supposed to take place after the Brexit deadline, which combined with the effect of Brexit, could change British relationships with other NATO countries. 

Many of the arguments for Brexit are political and economic, including the rise of nationalism globally, frustration from people in import-competing sectors that have been negatively affected by EU trade policies, anti-immigrant sentiments, and discontent towards EU systems and bureaucracy. However, there are no arguments out there showing that Brexit would be a good idea for national security, especially that things such as cybercrimes are borderless and therefore require international cooperation and intelligence-sharing to combat. 

Polls in the UK show that if the Brexit referendum were to take place again today, Brits would not vote in favor of leaving the EU. Many voters were initially unaware of just how much chaos a British exit from the EU would cause, and it is worth bringing national security effects into the conversation and considering the possibility that public opinion has changed on the issue. In fact, the national security argument might even appease Brexit supporters; if they care about protecting their country so much then why would they want to support a decision that would in fact make it less safe and secure?

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