Russia’s Expanding Role in the Korean Peninsula: How the War in Ukraine is Affecting Policies a World Away

On February 24, 2022, the world watched in disbelief as 200,000 Russian soldiers marched into the unprepared region of Kyiv, starting the Russo-Ukraine War. Western nations, led by the European Union and the United States, have responded with heavy sanctions and increased military presence in Eastern Europe, solidifying a united front against Russia to isolate Putin's command. Contrary to common prediction, Ukraine did not fall in a matter of days. Rather, for the past 18 months, its forces have fought bravely against the Russian soldiers, even having gained territory as of late. With the drawn-out war in Ukraine exhausting its stock of ammunition, Russia has looked to rally support from its old ally, North Korea.

Putin invited North Korea’s Kim Jong Un to meet him in Vostochny, Russia, on September 13, 2023. This marks Kim’s first visit to Russia in nearly four years and his first time leaving North Korea since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Kim traveled by a bullet-proof train, with sources estimating that the fortified train could only move up to 20-30 miles per hour. Kim Jong-un's decision to travel slowly by train instead of quickly by plane leaves spectators questioning his rationale. Experts suggest that he may fear the threat of being shot down by an enemy, while others believe he is following the precedent set by generations of North Korean leaders who would travel by train. Nevertheless, Russia reveals itself to be increasingly desperate for allies in this war, and as Kim embarks on these slow and heavily fortified journeys, the world sees how far isolated these powers are on the world front.

At this meeting, Kim Jong Un pledged support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, applauding Putin’s army’s “sacred fight” with the West. Putin used an old Russian adage, “An old friend is better than two new ones,” to describe their relationship with North Korea and hinted at the prospect of military cooperation without disclosing further details. The question of whether Russia will offer its advanced technology, such as rockets and satellites, in exchange for North Korea's munitions looms large in the Western world.  

The Korean Peninsula’s proximity to Russia has rendered it strategically valuable to eastern Europe and northern Asia dynamics. This geographical closeness has historical roots dating back to the 1940s when, after the fall of Japan’s colonial rule, the Soviet Union supported the appointment of dictator Kim Il Sung as the North Korean president. The Soviet Union then equipped North Korea with weapons, warplanes, and soldiers, and on June 25, 1950, North Korea invaded South Korea to take control of the peninsula. The United States and its allies entered the war soon after. They supported South Korea and helped push the North Korean army back to the original border of the 38th parallel. The fighting ended when the Chinese People’s Volunteer Army entered the war on the side of North Korea and forced the US and South Korea to sign an armistice agreement.

However, soon after the Korean War, Kim Il Sung purged pro-Soviet and pro-Chinese factions within the North’s leadership to consolidate his power. In response, Moscow cut off North Korean aid towards the end of the Cold War. Additionally, throughout the 1980s, the Soviet Union and South Korea underwent the process of rapprochement, which was later streamlined after the fall of the Soviet Union. And until recently, Russia’s diplomacy toward South Korea was a policy of “equidistance.” 

During the two decades of his reign, Putin amended the constitution to prolong his time in power and changed the course of Russia and the world. Turning Russia’s government from a nascent democratic state to an autocratic one, he set out to strengthen its geographical and political domain, first by annexing Crimea in 2014 and invading Ukraine in 2022. If Pyongyang provides arms to Moscow, as South Korean officials have speculated, the geopolitical tensions that led to the Korean War could re-emerge. Seventy years since the Korean War ceased, Russia is inviting North Korea to renew its alliance. This mirrors the pre-war tension between North Korea, backed by the Soviet Union, and South Korea, backed by the U.S. and its Western allies.

With the two Koreas still engaged in conflict and North Korea’s repressive regime, Russia's expanding role in the Korean Peninsula is not without its challenges. Pyongyang's prominent nuclear ambitions have seriously strained relations with many nations, including Russia. Experts warn that Moscow must carefully navigate these challenges while engaging with North Korea, balancing its military interests with maintaining its stated commitment to North Korean denuclearization. 

If Russia, forging the alliance of “old friendship,” were to increase its engagement with North Korea and exchange sensitive military technology or expertise, it would exacerbate the already precarious situation on the Korean Peninsula. Any further developments would not only heighten existing regional tensions but could possibly jeopardize the fight for non-proliferation across the globe. 

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yul addressed the United Nations General Assembly on September 13 to warn the body of a growing global concern regarding the recent meetings. Yoon stated that South Korea, alongside its allies, “will not sit idly by” over a Pyongyang-Moscow weapons deal, citing that this would not only pose a threat to Ukraine but also to South Korea. It is still unclear whether these meetings will actually result in a formidable military alliance between Putin and Kim, but regardless, there is a legitimate growing concern over how much more these authoritarian leaders can disrupt global stability.