Afghanistan Completes Opium Crackdown
Afghanistan has long been a country rife with opium, an essential ingredient in the popular street drug heroin. During the last several decades, Afghanistan has been the world's leading opium producer, manufacturing over 80% of the global supply and 95% of that of Europe. With an ideal climate and terrain conditions, and because of a historically lawless environment, Afghanistan is suitable for large-scale production of opium. The Afghan government attempted to curtail the cultivation of opium for decades, but the 1979 Soviet invasion shattered these efforts. When the war began, the government was unable to control rural areas populated by Mujahideen fighters who were looking for ways to finance their need for weapons. A structured system for the illicit manufacturing and selling of opium emerged from this, entrenching this practice amongst rural populations. The 1980s saw a dramatic rise in opium production, and, by the end of the decade, Afghanistan was responsible for 35% of the drug on the global market. Lethal conflicts and devastating wars specific to Afghanistan continuously deteriorated the situation in the country as it continued to grow as a global opium producer.
Between 1972 and the early 1980s, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey, all competing producers of opium, began restricting its cultivation, contributing to the newfound popularity of opium production in Afghanistan. Iran outlawed opium production in the wake of its 1979 Islamic Revolution whereas Turkey, which used to be a major supplier of U.S. heroin, outlawed the drug with United Nations and U.S. support. Afghan farmers cemented their place as some of the most critical producers of the illegal market during this period. When Soviet troops left the country in 1988, opium production reached even greater heights as it had proved itself to be an effective source of revenue for rural populations and warring groups in the Afghan civil war. These competing factions turned to opium production as a method of generating the necessary income for expanding their respective spheres of influence, leading to the expanded system of markets, infrastructure, and trading networks. Production continued to expand up until 2000 when the Taliban supreme leader announced a total ban on opium production in the country, as the organization believed that the drug was haram, or forbidden by Islamic law. The otherwise successful eradication efforts were shortly disrupted after the United States invaded Afghanistan in response to the September 11 Attacks.
U.S. military operations started just weeks after the attacks as America allied itself with the Northern Alliance and other anti-Taliban groups to attack Afghanistan’s terrorist network. The Taliban collapsed in December 2001 as they surrendered the city of Kandahar and their leader, Mullah Omar, fled the city. This marked the beginning of the nearly 20-year process of Afghan reconstruction. With the Taliban in exile and effectively removed from power, the opium ban could not be enforced. Production surged after this as the United States’ primary mission was to eliminate terrorists and did not prioritize counternarcotics. To further complicate the drug problem, many of the drug world's key figures were also high-ranking leaders in Afghanistan’s new government in Kabul. However, the United States never completely ignored the drug problem in the country because it was the top source of revenue for insurgent groups like the Taliban that threatened Afghan stability; thus, the United States linked eradicating opium to eradicating terrorism.
However, destroying the opium market in Afghanistan proved difficult for a variety of reasons. For one, these counternarcotics policies put rural farmers out of work, thus alienating them, which effectively drove them to the Taliban’s side. The U.S. ultimately spent around $9 billion in this Afghan war on drugs and even opened up Drug Enforcement Agency offices in the country. Despite these efforts, opium production steadily increased and farmers produced record harvests year after year. In 2017, the U.S. launched its last major counternarcotics effort in Afghanistan, Operation Iron Tempest. The goal was to attack opium fields and production labs via airstrikes and thus destroy the top source of funding for terrorist networks in Afghanistan. However, the operation was unsuccessful as many suspected lab sites were nothing more than mud-walled huts and contained nothing of significant value. Despite America’s recurring failures in its counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan, another group was able to launch a more successful counternarcotics effort, the Taliban.
After the utterly cataclysmic fall of Kabul in August 2021, the Taliban returned to power and reestablished the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, precipitating a nationwide humanitarian crisis. The economy collapsed and the country was heavily sanctioned and financially restricted by countries it otherwise depended on for aid. Naturally, Afghan farmers continued their reliance on opium as a means of financially supporting themselves and their families. However, in April 2022, the Taliban reinstated the ban on growing opium under strict new laws declaring the cultivation and usage of the drug to be haram. Many were unsure of how successful the ban would be, but by November 2023, opium production had fallen 90% since the 2022 ban from 6,200 tons to 333 tons. Though this could limit the availability of opium and heroin on international markets, it could drive other illegal activities like weapons smuggling and human trafficking. The economic shock from the ban is immense, collectively costing the hundreds of thousands of farmers an estimated $1 billion drop in their revenue. Due to the dry, arid climate of Afghanistan, many farmers have now turned to wheat, which does not generate a comparable amount of money to opium. This sharp decline in profit comes amidst a significant drop in humanitarian aid for a country where 40% of its citizens suffer from acute food insecurity. Yet, the effects of this ban reach beyond Afghanistan and pose a threat to creating transnational problems in the years to come.
Although it is tempting to view this as a counternarcotics victory, there are many potential negative consequences. The ban could lead to an outpour of refugees, creating a crisis that could threaten the stability of this historically volatile portion of the world as a large part of the population depends on rural agriculture. Further, it is unclear what these rural farmers will turn to now, and equally important is the question of where the Taliban will get their funding. Although wheat production increased over the last year, so has methamphetamine production. Amid falling opium production, Afghans began producing more methamphetamine and are the world’s fastest-growing producers of the drug. Methamphetamine seizures increased from 220 pounds in 2019 to 6,000 pounds by 2021, suggesting a large increase in production of the drug. Methamphetamine is made using another drug, ephedrine, which is made through ephedra plants which are found in Afghanistan. Despite the revenue this illicit market could bring to the country, the Taliban outlawed the production and sale of methamphetamine. Additionally, the demand for drugs in Europe, which previously was supplied by Afghan opium, is unlikely to decrease, which might prompt people to use more dangerous or synthetic drugs like fentanyl.
The process of restricting opium growth in Afghanistan has been complicated and tumultuous, much like the recent history of the country. The nation has been ravaged by three deadly wars during the last 40 years, leaving the population battered and searching for other means of survival. Now the country faces potentially greater problems than before as the poor rural population absorbed most of the sweeping ban’s burden. Afghanistan now must somehow mitigate this growing social and economic crisis which could lead to significant repercussions for an already unstable Middle East.