Between Brussels and Washington: Italy’s Sticky Spot between the EU and the U.S.

Given her vision for Italy as the bridge between the European Union and the increasingly divisive United States, newly re-elected President Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions have stretched the Italian Prime Minister thin. Giorgia Meloni has been conciliatory toward American economic threats, looking to be a strong conservative leader on the continent, but recent developments in the Ukrainian war negotiations have created complications. With Trump keen on pushing his policy without care for compromise, Meloni has some tough decisions to make regarding the legacy of her foreign policy.

In a country often marred by political turnover, Meloni has positioned herself as a stable Italian leader, directing the longest-lasting government in over a decade. Though citizens initially feared she would become a hardline conservative at home and abroad due to her party ties and domestic policy, she has instead directed a more cooperative approach. She has formed a close working relationship with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and become a leader on migration policy for the EU, a political entity she previously disparaged in her campaign. Her support for Ukraine has been fierce, meeting with President Zelenskyy countless times and crafting defense deals between the two countries.

The stability of her government coalition, compared to France and Germany’s political fragility, has also positioned her as a strong European ally for Washington. Coupled with domestic politics that closely align with the new American government, Meloni has hoped to forge a more robust transatlantic relationship than she had with former President Biden. 

She has already taken steps to do so. She was the only European leader to attend Trump’s inauguration in January, and he called her a “fantastic woman” when she visited his Mar-a-Lago residence. In her most recent press conference on January 9, she downplayed Trump’s threats against Greenland, Canada, and Panama, saying he does things “for a reason.” She also questioned global frustrations with Elon Musk’s social media comments, asking if the issue was because he “is influential and rich” or because “he is not left-wing.” There were even rumors that Italy was considering a government contract with Musk’s Starlink satellites for government telecommunications, but the proposal sparked uproar from opposition parties and defense experts, causing Meloni to shut down the idea entirely. She spoke virtually at the CPAC conference in Maryland, echoing U.S. cultural talking points surrounding nationalism and identity, and arguing that Trump will prove people wrong by maintaining close alliances with Europe.

Still, Meloni and Trump are not aligned on every issue. With Trump’s exclusion of both Ukraine and the EU from peace negotiations with Russia, Meloni has tried to remain balanced, understanding that allying in one direction will likely alienate Italy from the other.

In a step away from the previous three years of Russian isolation, Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 12, calling Ukraine’s NATO membership “impractical” and emphasizing his lack of belief in Ukraine regaining Russian-controlled territory. Later that week, a U.S. delegation met with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia about ending the war, with a noticeable exclusion of Ukrainian or EU representatives. In response, French President Emmanuel Macron called an emergency meeting of European leaders in Paris on February 17, hoping to regroup on European security. Meloni’s presence at this meeting suggested regional obligation and her political position.

She arrived close to an hour late to the summit and left without a statement to the press, a silence she has maintained since a January 9 conference. She questioned Macron’s meeting being held in Paris instead of Brussels, voiced displeasure at the exclusion of the Baltic nations who share a border with Russia, and spoke out against the idea of deploying European troops to Ukraine. Yet in an effort to appease her American allies, she insisted that the meeting could not be “an anti-Trump” format and that the EU policy should not conflict with U.S.-Ukrainian policy.

While Meloni has not made direct statements about the recent calls, Antonio Tajani, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, has played the balancing act as well, stating that “Italy supports Trump’s diplomatic activity,” emphasizing Rome’s words are not “aggressive towards Trump,” while also hoping Ukraine’s voice is not lost in the process. In many ways, a movement away from supplying further military aid to Ukraine could be beneficial for Italy, whose population has been opposed to sending aid and whose NATO contributions fall below the 2 percent minimum of GDP.

Meloni’s position in Trump’s favor is inspired by a desire for their countries’ relationship to be mutually beneficial, but her attempts to pacify the American administration ignore possible European consequences and the fact that Trump is unequivocally focused on his America First plan. The Atlantic Council has called Italy the “most disillusioned actor” regarding its global and European position. Despite Meloni’s assumption of an even playing field, Trump is not one to be flexible on his policy decisions, even if they hurt U.S. allies. Italy would not be excluded from EU tariffs if they are ever implemented just because of friendly relations with the president.

While the European sphere of influence has consistently been dominated by France and Germany, Meloni hopes that strengthening this relationship with the U.S. will allow her to argue to her base that the economic giant is taking Italy seriously. With a more closely aligned leader, she’s argued that Trump would keep his word of “peace through strength” concerning the crisis, and Italy would become “Europe’s future bridge to Donald Trump.” Yet if tariffs were to be imposed, as Trump has threatened, this argument would go down the drain.

A study by Italian consulting firm Prometeia predicts that a 10 percent tariff would likely cost Italy between 4 and 7 billion euros, a harsh amount considering the economy grew by only 0.7 percent in 2024 and has been relatively stagnant in recent years. Compounding domestic issues including abuses in migrant centers, an espionage scandal, and a tentative security bill place further pressure on her government to avoid political squabbles.

While Meloni yearns to be that bridge over the Atlantic, in the case of a trade war with the U.S. her only options are joining Europe or being left alone. She risks damaging her regional reputation if she pulls back her Ukrainian support after three years, and she cannot afford to sacrifice her relationship with the EU. With Italy already spending less than NATO’s 2 percent requirement, Italy is not in a position to toy with following Trump’s lead away from the EU on every issue. As for now, she’s backed herself into a corner, and while her bridge has been built, how structurally sound it truly is is up for debate.