Transnistrian Energy Crisis Implications on Moldovan bid to join European Union
On January 1, 2025, Russia stopped supplying natural gas to Transnistria, a breakaway region of the Republic of Moldova. As a result, Transnistria lost almost all access to gas for heating and hot water during a particularly bitter cold winter stretch. Its main power plant abruptly switched from gas to coal, reducing its electricity output, and causing daily blackouts for its 367,000 residents. Russia’s move, however, inadvertently fueled greater dependence between the European Union and its longtime suitor, Moldova, a former Soviet bloc country.
Few people have heard of Transnistria, and even fewer countries recognize its autonomy from Moldova, which became independent from Russia in 1991. After multiple conflicts with Moldova between 1990 and 1992, Transnistria, with Russia’s assistance, declared itself an autonomous region. Russia immediately stationed troops in Transnistria. While it is internationally recognized as part of Moldova, Transnistria receives protection and subsidized resources from Russia, including – until January 1 – free gas. Transnistria, along with the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia, are Russian-supported frozen conflicts. Shunned by the international community, these territories support Russia in maintaining regional influence while precluding their host countries, which lack territorial sovereignty, from joining international organizations. Russian troops remain stationed in Transnistria to this day.
Despite the Transnistrian albatross, Moldova has repeatedly sought EU membership, following the path of Romania and Bulgaria despite fierce Russian resistance. A Moldovan EU membership would boost its economy, provide funds for infrastructure, and decrease the number of emigrants from Moldova. Given its status as the poorest European country, Moldova would immensely benefit from EU membership. Moldova applied to join the EU in March 2022 under President Maia Sandu’s leadership and was granted candidate status in June 2022. It has undergone a series of legal and economic reforms to make Moldova eligible for EU membership. June 2024 marked the first accession negotiations between the EU and Moldova. In December 2024, the EU approved the Moldovan enlargement report, which confirmed that the country is on the right path toward EU membership.
When Ukraine elected not to extend a contract allowing Russia to use trans-Ukrainian pipelines to send gas to Transnistria and Moldova, Russia physically terminated all gas transfers on the first day of the year. Russia also elected not to use alternate routes that could have delivered gas to Moldova, and ultimately Transnistria, because it claimed Moldova had failed to pay a $709 million debt. In blaming Moldova, Russia sought to turn Transnistrian voters against Moldova in the upcoming elections and to pull the country back into its orbit. But Russia’s actions have fueled Moldova’s determination to terminate Russia’s influence by joining the EU. The EU, in turn, granted Moldova €270 million in grants and pledges: the European Commission granted €20 million to relieve the Transnistrian energy crisis and €250 million to help Moldova wean off Russian gas. These grants facilitate Moldova’s shift away from Russia.
Russia opposes Moldova's EU membership. Similar to its history with the Soviet bloc countries, Russia works to maintain a sphere of influence in the former Soviet countries that haven't already joined the European Union. It wants to block Western influence from reaching and infiltrating its borders and that of the countries it seeks to control. Similarly, Russia's relationship with Georgia remains tense due to Georgia's pivot westward. Although Russia maintains influence in former Soviet countries, its influence is fading as many of them support Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian War. This diminishing influence prompted Russia’s escalating interference in Moldova’s politics and elections.
The energy crisis has destabilized the region and led to frantic efforts to find power elsewhere. In response, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean stated, “Under Moscow’s pressure, [Transnistria's de facto capital] Tiraspol refused €60 million in EU aid that could have ended energy blackmail.” Moldova has seen a doubling of its fuel costs as it now purchases fuel from Romania, which has had - perhaps by Russia’s design - a destabilizing impact in Moldova in advance of its parliamentary elections. Moscow’s geopolitical influence over Transnistria remains, although the Transnistrian people may not follow Moscow’s expectations.
Russia has long intervened in regional power politics to strengthen its political influence, especially in former Soviet bloc countries. In the case of Moldova and Transnistria, Russia has seemingly fallen back on a tried and true tactic: leveraging its energy exports to influence regional politics. In 2022, after sanctions were imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, Russia decreased its gas supply to European lines, forcing many countries to transition to gas sourced elsewhere. However, it might not produce the desired effect if the Transnistrian population, who can vote in Moldovan elections, joins other Moldovan voters to retain the current pro-EU parliament in the upcoming election.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agrees with Moldovan President Sandu’s assessment that Russia aims to undermine the pro-EU Sandu. During a January 25 press conference with President Sandu, Zelensky said, “Moldova is going through a completely artificial energy crisis, which was created by Moscow…Energy resources are exactly the kind of weapon Russia uses to influence the politics of other countries through crises.” Moscow hopes Transnistrians will blame the pro-EU Moldovan government for the problems and oust President Sandu’s parliamentary supporters. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accuses Moldova of being a Western puppet whose policies will turn the country into the “next Ukraine.” The loss of parliamentary power backing President Sandu could prevent Moldova from participating in EU negotiations. However, shutting down gas lines to Transnistria may have further alienated the pro-Russian territory from Russia.
The upcoming elections will determine who Transnistria holds responsible for its energy crisis and subsequent economic turmoil. If Transnistria votes pro-Russia, Russia will stall Moldova's efforts to join the EU and further strengthen its influence in Moldova. With a pro-Moldovan Transnistrian vote, Moldova will remain on track to EU membership and Russia’s influence will further diminish. Either way, this would be the latest chapter in the decades-long Russian efforts to maintain its influence in Transnistria and further Moldova.