COP26: The Clock is Ticking

Climate change is a challenge that can only be overcome if it is addressed at the international level, and global leaders have attempted to collaboratively mitigate climate change since 1972. 

In 2015, leaders of 200 countries signed the groundbreaking Paris Agreement, a global and legally binding framework wherein all developed and developing countries are required to contribute to mitigating climate change. One of the most important outcomes of the Paris Agreement is the objective to keep any temperature increase well below 2°C and ideally below 1.5°C, as every fraction of a degree of warming has severe environmental and societal consequences.

Yet, scientists suggest that important tipping points may have already been reached, causing irreversible damage to the planetary climate system. The global effects of climate change are no longer a dilemma for a future generation. Rather, the repeatedly ignored warnings over the past decades have become reality, and the damaging effects of warmer temperatures are already affecting human health in every region on Earth.  

Following the recent release of the sixth IPCC report (AR6), António Guterres, the United Nations Secretary-General, warned the findings were nothing less than “a code red for humanity. The alarm bells are deafening, and the evidence is irrefutable.” 

During the first two weeks of November 2021, the UK in partnership with Italy is hosting an event many believe to be the world’s best last chance to get runaway climate change under control. The UN has been organizing global climate summits – called Conference of the Parties (COPs) - for nearly three decades. 

This year, all Paris agreement signatories are expected to return to the negotiating table and accelerate action towards the targets of the Paris Agreement. The main goals of COP26 are to encourage parties to present their national climate plans (known as “Nationally Determined Contributions” or NDCs) that establish their emission reduction targets for 2030, discuss adaptation measures, increase climate finance, and finalize the Paris Rulebook – “the detailed rules that make the Paris Agreement operational.” 

However, COP26 is not just another international summit. Most experts believe it is the most important summit since Paris, and that it is a critical moment for efforts to address the threat of climate change. 

While leaders made big promises in Paris, countries have not done enough to mitigate the worst impact of climate change. Scottish climate change expert, Jim Skea, has called on world leaders to “step up to the plate” and deliver on their promises at COP26, as “the clock is ticking.”

COP26 has a unique urgency, as the UN has declared that this decade will be crucial to limit global warming well below 2°C. Countries have less than 10 years to reduce emissions faster than they are already doing if they are to meet the 1.5°C goal. 

European leaders have pledged to lead real change at COP26. In her second annual address at the European Parliament in September, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed her commitment on climate leadership, “aiming to set an example for other international powers and lead the fight against climate change.” 

On 6 October, The EU’s position for COP26 was approved by the EU Council, emphasizing the “extreme urgency to step up the global response to address the climate emergency and underline the need for a just and fair climate transition across the world.” 

The conclusions confirmed that the EU must scale up the mobilization of international climate finance, the transnational financing system to support mitigation and adaptation actions addressed to poorer countries. President von der Leyen announced that the EU will propose “an additional four billion euro for climate finance until 2027” in addition to mainstreaming ecosystem resilience by doubling its external funding for biodiversity, “in particular for the most vulnerable countries.”

A key area of discussion revolves around finalizing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, a mechanism that was not agreed upon until the last morning of the Paris negotiations in 2015 and was left unresolved at the Katowice Climate Talks in 2018. Article 6 aims to promote an integrated, holistic, and balanced approach that will assist governments in implementing their NDCs through voluntary international cooperation. Under this mechanism, countries with low emissions could sell their exceeding allowance to larger emitters, while ensuring their net reduction. Therefore, resolving Article 6 at COP26 is critical for fighting climate change, as it will set the rules for international carbon trading and enable parties to trade emission reductions. 

The EU’s emissions-cutting targets are already among the most ambitious of the world’s major economies, and the bloc has presented one of the most detailed plans on how it intends to lower greenhouse gas emissions. The commission expects 27 EU members to reduce emissions by at least 55% by 2030, and the parliament’s environment committee adopted a text urging EU negotiators at COP26 to take a leading role in promoting carbon pricing and to advocate for “strict and robust” rules. 

Another important issue that will be addressed at COP26 is whether countries’ climate targets under the Paris Agreement should follow a “common timeframe.” EU environmental ministers agreed to support the view that countries should increase their international climate goals every five years, instead of the current ten-year plan. According to WWF European Policy Officer Romain Laugier, this will pressure countries to keep track of whether they are cutting emissions fast enough and allow negotiators “more than two chances to solve the climate emergency within a timeline consistent with a 1.5°C pathway.

However, EU environment ministers have agreed to implement the five-year timeframe only if all other signatories of the Paris Agreement commit to do the same. Critics believe this weakens the EU’s stance at COP26, as it is reminiscent of the failed 2009 Copenhagen climate summit in which Europe committed to increase its climate ambitions only if the other countries did the same. 

While the EU is setting ambitious goals, its efforts will be in vain if other countries do not cooperate. The Union is therefore urging other regions and major economies to set tougher goals in order to tackle the climate crisis collectively. Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) are urging all G20 nations to show global leadership and commit to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest. On Monday, EU Commission President von der Leyen and US President Biden announced a global partnership to cut emissions of greenhouse gas methane by 2030, and are urging other countries to sign up to The Global Methane Pledge. 

Though initiating The Global Methane Pledge is a good start, the US must do more. In particular, von der Leyen urged the US – the world’s second largest emitter – to follow through on its pledge to provide climate finance. The US is the world’s largest economy and more responsible than any other nation for the historical emissions causing climate change. However, it has not provided its “fair share” of climate finance. A senior Biden administration official confirmed that “the US has heard from others around the world the need to continue to increase our ambition on climate finance, and the US is taking a look at that,” while John Kerry, the first US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, has been optimistic about the prospect of more money. However, this may not be possible, as Congress controls government spending, and international climate finance is not currently a top priority. 

European officials have also expressed concern about China’s reliance on coal. China currently aims to bring its total greenhouse gas emissions to a peak by “around 2030”, but the EU would like to see the country decarbonize its economy and hit peak emissions by 2025. The Climate Action Tracker rates China’s climate commitments as “highly insufficient” and, to improve its rating, China needs to peak emissions as early as possible and decrease coal and fossil fuel consumption at a much faster rate than currently planned.” Climate ambition on the part of the world’s three largest economies is essential, as it “could set a new global pace.”

The EU played a critical role in producing the Paris Agreement in 2015, and success in Glasgow may again depend on EU leadership. As the world’s richest trading bloc and most established diplomatic force, the EU must play a leading role at COP26 and collaborate with the rest of the parties to address humanity’s greatest threat. 

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