Earthquakes, Economics, and Elections: Turkey’s Syrian Refugee Population Faces Heightened Uncertainty
As a result of a once in a generation earthquake on February 6, 2023, anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey remains high amidst political and economic tension. Between Syria and Turkey, an estimated 54,000 lives were lost from the earthquake, accompanied by the widespread destruction of key infrastructure, buildings, and homes. This tragic devastation further contributed to higher rates of hyperinflation and unemployment, affecting both the Turkish economy and Turkish public life. Moreover, this quake occurred just months before Turkey’s most recent presidential election in June 2023 – an election cycle in which both candidates espoused anti-refugee rhetoric and promises that jeopardized the well-being of almost four million Syrian refugees in Turkey. Syrian refugees thus face a myriad of challenges as they navigate a damaged Turkish economy, the threat of deportation, and a daunting earthquake recovery – all as a systemically vulnerable population in Turkey.
Anti-Syrian refugee sentiment has developed a firm grasp on both sides of the Turkish political discourse. In a study conducted by the Turkish polling company ORC, more than half of Turkish citizens claim that their neighborhood has a refugee problem. This widespread anti-Syrian sentiment has caused worsening discrimination and harassment against Turkey’s Syrian population, as hate crimes and public displays of vitriol against Syrian refugees have become more and more frequent. These incidents include stabbings, murders, arson, beatings, and more. Much of this anti-refugee sentiment is derived from the sweeping uncertainty in the Turkish public about the state of the economy.
Turkey is currently dealing with a serious economic crisis, with its inflation rate reaching as high as 70 percent in May 2022 amidst economic challenges posed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and, as of late, February’s earthquake. However, Turkey’s economic hardships have instead been blamed on Syrian refugees. Anti-refugee rhetoric has characterized Syrian refugees as supposedly undercutting Turkish citizens’ prospects for employment, due to a willingness to pursue below minimum wage jobs with no social security. This lack of protection for the labor practices and wages that Syrian refugees are subjected to in the Turkish labor market, however, can be traced to discriminatory issues in Turkey’s administration of immigration policy.
Turkey currently has the largest refugee population in the world, including approximately 3.7 million Syrian refugees and hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees. However, the majority of Turkey’s Syrian refugees are afforded only a temporary protected status – not citizenship. This status grants Turkey’s Syrian refugees some necessities including health care and education, but places them in a state of prolonged temporary protected status by blocking the population from applying for citizenship. Moreover, this occurs while Turkish immigration law allows foreigners to apply for citizenship after five years of their residence in Turkey. Despite this, many Syrian refugees have resided in Turkey since 2011 but are still barred from citizenship. This double standard in Turkish immigration policies have marginalized much of Turkey’s 3.7 million Syrian refugee population to a state of long term ongoing temporary protected status.
In addition to being subjected to a lack of labor and employment protections, Syrian refugees are also at a heightened risk of deportation as a result of their temporary protected status. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while previously having pledged support for Syrian refugees, announced a program for voluntary returns of Syrian refugees in 2022 – an action seemingly made to appease anti-refugee sentiments in the country amidst surging unpopularity towards his economic policies in the period leading up to Turkey’s most recent presidential election. However, Erdogan was not the only candidate in this election to incorporate anti-refugee policies into their political platform. Erdogan’s former opponent in the country’s most recent presidential election, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, campaigned pledging mass deportations within his first two years in power, including 750,000 Turkish-born children of Syrian refugees. Recep Tayyip Erdogan has since won reelection as Turkey’s president; however, the popularity of anti-refugee sentiment exposed during the election cycle promises a continued state of uncertainty for Turkey’s Syrian refugees. The risk of deportation from Turkey faced by Syrian refugees, closely corresponding with the country’s economic crisis and anti-refugee sentiment, will continue to be a high profile issue as the country reels from severe humanitarian and economic damage from the earthquake.