Flood Prevention in Pakistan: What’s Changed Since 2010?

Since June 2022, Pakistan has faced devastating floods during a record-breaking monsoon season, resulting in over 1,569 deaths as of estimates from September 21. The country has suffered the internal displacement of over 30 million people, with 500,000 people living in relief sites, while food remains in short supply. These devastating floods will have long lasting impacts in Pakistan beyond the destruction of households and agricultural sites: water pollution heightens the potential for various diseases (such as cerebral malaria, and other ailments for which available medicine lacks) to cultivate in drinking water, including vector borne illnesses spread by mosquitoes that breed in standing water.

Since its independence, Pakistan has remained heavily reliant on international aid in times of crisis, particularly after the destruction of its agricultural and industrial sectors. Still, recent aid barely scratches the surface of the 40 billion dollars estimated in damages due to this year’s flooding. Many parts of the country remain underwater, and relief agencies estimate it could take up to six months for flood waters to recede in the hardest hit areas.

However, this isn’t Pakistan’s first flood – in fact, the country has a long history of deadly flooding. Between 1950 and 2010, 21 major floods in the Indus River resulted in over 8,887 casualties. Another major flood in 2010 generated severe casualties of over 2,000 people, as well as widespread agricultural, residential, and infrastructural damage. With the growing threat of climate change, Pakistan faces even greater risks in the future for intensifying monsoons in the region, and many scientists are left wondering why these death tolls are so high, and what the future of Pakistan’s preventative measures look like to curtail the effects of catastrophic flooding.

Since the middle of the 20th century, Pakistan has implemented various methods to prevent and manage flooding, as well as numerous structural measures to protect areas from river erosion and flood damages. Floods in the Indus and Jehlum rivers prompted the construction of the Mangla and Tarbela dams in 1967 and 1974, respectively, however the dams’ storage capacities are decreasing due to sedimentation. Flood warnings were initiated in 1975 with over 40 stations established throughout the country, however, they have since been reduced to 20 stations due to maintenance issues. In 1977, Pakistan also established the Federal Flood Commision in charge of the development and maintenance of flood systems in Pakistan.

Research at the Advancing Earth and Space Science Institute asserts that the key to predicting floods is an accurate hydrological model, which uses weather inputs to predict and manage water resources. During monsoon seasons, multi-year analyses reveal that rainfall is predictable in Pakistan six to eight days in advance. If greater resources had been available to Northern Pakistan during the 2010 floods, such as a hydrological forecasting scheme that grants 10 day river forecasts, experts could have anticipated the filling of dams ahead of time and flooding could have been mitigated.

In April 2022, the Public Sector Development Programme constructed large reservoirs in Balochistan, a desert climate province in Pakistan's southwestern region. Over 27 dams were completed in this area, which increased the water storage capacity significantly. However, Pakistan’s water storage capacity is still limited to only 30 days carryover, in comparison to India’s 170 days and Egypt’s 700. Available information on Pakistan’s flood zoning and mapping projects, which would help predict areas of caution for upcoming monsoon seasons, is also minimal. Continuous flooding further contributes to the displacement of families and communities, and exacerbates Pakistan’s worsening education crisis. The country’s literacy rate currently sits at 62.4 percent, meaning over 60 million Pakistanis are illiterate. Unmanaged floods drive food inequality and malnutrition, often contributing to a rise of improperly treated parasitic infections and increasing illiteracy rates alike. Additionally, the economic devastation of losing a home or job results in many children leaving school and taking up careers to help support their families.

Since Pakistan’s independence from the British in 1947, the country has experienced numerous unstable and corrupt political systems. Most recently, former Prime Minister Imran Khan received a vote of no confidence and was ousted from Parliament in April 2022. His foreign policy initiatives, which included a lack of cooperation with the CIA and the endorsement of the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan, were considered controversial and rendered it difficult for Pakistan to participate effectively in the international community, possibly limiting its capacity to advocate for worldwide environmental policy favorable to its risk for flooding. As one of the world’s smallest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions (less than 1 percent), Pakistan is rated by the Inform Risk Index as 18th out of 192 countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. A study conducted in 2015 concluded that although the majority of Pakistanis believe pollution and the lack of access to drinking water are severe problems, they also lack confidence in the government’s ability to take actions necessary to address climate change. 

It is notably difficult to instill change when funds and government support are limited or unreliable. Although international aid can be beneficial, limited resources and infrastructure in developing countries makes it extremely difficult for response teams to adequately address crises. In 2010, Pakistan was criticized for its slow response to mobilize resources received through international aid. Furthermore, democracy enhances the efficacy of foreign aid, and the corruption and perceived inefficiency of the Pakistani government’s ability to battle climate change thus presents a key challenge as the country receives monetary support.

Pakistan faces a long journey ahead in its goals to mitigate flooding, but by improving and maintaining adequate flood prevention measures, the devastating effects of future floods in Pakistan may be successfully reduced. Also worth considering is the reluctance of countries in the Global North (responsible for over 90 percent of excess global carbon emissions) to implement long-term, effective, and immediate environmental policy. President Biden’s recent climate change bill may have felt like a victory in the United States for its promise to achieve 100 percent clean energy and net-zero emissions by the year 2050, but what relief does it offer to developing nations throughout the world that must continue to bear the disproportionate consequences of extreme drought, flooding, air pollution, and more, in the meantime?

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