How the Conflict in the Arctic is Heating Up

Although climate change is a primary issue in the Arctic Circle, the changes it has wrought in the region have simultaneously created new benefits and new areas of conflict for the countries surrounding the North Pole. The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, but sea ice melting has seen three major powers scrambling to take advantage of the new space. The U.S. and Russia are taking advantage of the new sea routes, while Canada is preparing in the event of a new front against Russia across the Arctic Ocean. Countries are going ahead with plans in the Arctic in fear of new avenues for conflict and creating threats to international security.

One direct concern for NATO nations is the possibility of conflict with Russia over control of the Arctic Circle. Normally, the Arctic Council, a coalition of the eight countries that border the Arctic Ocean, meets twice a year to cooperate on issues such as sustainable development and environmental protection. However, seven of the eight countries announced a “pause” in council relations due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia chairs the council until the end of this year, a duty that rotates between countries. While Russia promised to use its time as chair to focus on sustainable development, most of its efforts have focused on restoring and rebuilding Russia’s military defenses in the country’s northern territories.

Satellite images show Russia reoccupying Cold War-era military bases in Franz Josef Land and Alexandra Island, cleaning up runways and making room for missile storage. Historically, the region was generally stable and the Arctic Council encouraged cooperation, but now considering the current situation, experts like Evan Bloom at the Polar Institute in Washington believe “it’s going to be difficult and perhaps impossible to have business-as-usual relationships with the Russians.” Experts say Russia’s efforts to militarize the region amidst Putin’s irrational actions in Ukraine will heighten tensions within the Arctic and make cooperation difficult.

Canada holds the most extensive coastline in the Arctic after Russia. A prominent member of the council, Canada has become increasingly worried that Russia’s irrational behavior will jeopardize national security. Last year, Russia submitted a proposal to the UN to claim nearly all the territory in the Arctic up to Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone. One immediate concern is the poor state of infrastructure in Canada’s northern territories. The country has invested little in maintaining its military bases and protecting its Indigenous population. The opposition government in Canada argues that Canada needs a strong response to Russian aggression in the region. Conservative Member of Parliament Bob Zimmer believes that “Canadians' safety is at risk if we do not step up to the plate and adequately defend." With Canada’s sparse population and weak infrastructure, Russia’s remilitarization has forced officials in the northern territories, like Yukon Territory Premier Sandy Silver, to ask the government for more spending dedicated to its northern reaches.

Despite these calls for renewed investment in the region, Canada has been slow to address Russia’s recent advances. Although Canada participated in a military exercise with the United States in March 2022 in the Arctic, government officials assured the public that it was not in direct response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The military exercise was initiated by NORAD, an initiative between the U.S. and Canada for air defense in North America, especially in the Arctic. NORAD commander Eric Kenney, who led the exercise, stated that the exercise was planned only to “showcase the need and [demonstrate] the relevance of what we do within NORAD.” Government officials in Ottawa tend to only voice concerns for the Arctic region while in opposition. Michael Byers, an expert in Arctic affairs at the University of British Columbia, noted that parties tend to ignore the region once they get into power. Additionally, he says that “there's so little incentive for Russian interference there [in the Arctic]” that politicians don’t pay enough attention to the region. Over 100,000 people live in Canada’s northern territories, many of whom are indigenous people that would be vulnerable in the event of a Russian invasion. Inuit organization leader Natan Obed stated that “Arctic sovereignty for Canada is directly related to Inuit land use and occupancy.” Although Canada continues to recognize a possible threat in the Arctic, its failure to address concerned populations by reinforcing military infrastructure could be a dangerous miscalculation given the new militarized Russian presence in the region. 

Credit: The Arctic Institute

Alaska represents the final major player in Arctic security, but the United States’ attention is split between military defense and economic pursuits. The U.S. has invested millions of dollars into new infrastructure in Alaska in anticipation of new shipping routes through the Arctic, made possible by melting ice. Alaska’s location as the Arctic’s gateway to the North Pacific Ocean has led the U.S. to invest more in Nome, a small port city in Western Alaska, to expand its port and capitalize on new, faster shipping routes from Western Europe to Asia via the Arctic. But the U.S.’ concerns about Russia remain; shipping patterns via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) pass through Russia’s northern reaches, and Russia has declared it would impose heavy restrictions on passing ships. As Russia continues its militarization of the region, the U.S. is keeping a vigilant watch with key ports like the one at Nome to help naval operations in the Arctic and beyond. The U.S. is concerned about Russian aggression, so the military continues to participate in cooperative exercises around the Arctic and maintains a strong presence in Alaska. These economic and military efforts on the part of the United States could either act as a buffer against Russian military buildups or as a measure to increase cooperation along the new shared shipping corridor. With tensions on the rise due to Russian aggression, the U.S. and Canada have valid concerns with the climate-change-driven opening of the Arctic. Both countries need to commit and sustain investment in the Arctic to maintain security along their new maritime borders.

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