How the War in Ukraine is Changing Latin America

With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three weeks ago, much media attention has focused upon the U.S. and NATO navigating post-Cold War relations. While Western media has recently focused on American trans-Atlantic relations, Russia’s desire to expand its influence has seen impacts in Latin America, serving as a worthy example in need of further investigation. Historically, the U.S. considered Latin America part of its extended sphere of influence, yet Russia has made a concerted effort in recent years and even recent months to strengthen diplomatic relations in Latin America prior to their engagement in Ukraine. Within historically Russia-aligned countries like Venezuela and Nicaragua as well as economically powerful nations like Brazil and Argentina, Russia could find a way through these relationships to both pressures the U.S. and bypass sanctions, effectively negating the invasion’s effects.

Out of all of the countries in Latin America, Brazil is a prime example of how Putin has continually exerted influence in Latin America as a way to undermine the U.S Brazil is the most economically powerful country in Latin America, yet. President Jair Bolsonaro, elected following a wave of populism in 2019, became more isolated on the world stage after a series of controversial decisions regarding China and the U.S. In response to this isolated position, Bolsonaro has pursued stronger relations with Russia through their loose economic alliance within the Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, or BRICS countries, and a “solidarity” visit to Moscow back in February – the same day the U.S. reported a Ukrainian invasion would begin. Bolsonaro has taken a neutral stance on the war, saying that Brazil’s position should be one of “caution” and “help[ing] wherever possible to find a solution.” While the country voted against Russia’s invasion in the most recent vote at the United Nations, Bolsonaro’s statements and position have shown that Brazil could be aligning closer to Russia, which could undermine the U.S.’s influence in the country.

One of Putin’s strategies in recent times may be counting on countries with broad support for authoritarian populism to view his actions favorably, looking for ways to leverage populist governments to his benefit. During the tense buildup to the invasion in mid-February, Putin and his diplomats reached out to countries in Latin America, hoping to extend their influence. Russia contacted the leaders of Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela, and Argentina during the troop buildup, whether through a state visit or a phone call. Some of these countries had developed relationships with Russia prior to February’s military buildup. For example, Russia provided Sputnik V coronavirus vaccines to Argentina and Venezuela, and furthermore, strengthened their alliance with Venezuela militarily by selling weapons to the Maduro regime in the past decade. Even before the conflict, Russia Today (RT), the state-sponsored television service, broadcasts in Spanish directly to Latin America. RT is poised with a wide network and is now responsible for spreading misinformation about the war throughout the region. Unlike RT’s reach in the United States, its large viewership in Latin America makes it an important influence on public opinion and could inspire action from civilians to support Russia during the war.

Regardless of new developments, Russia’s strategy of courting new countries in Latin America is not a novel approach. Historically, Russia has always been an ally for countries that have been cut off diplomatically from the U.S., from Cuba in the 1960s to loans and weapons to support Venezuelan oil in recent years. In return, Russia has received support from its allied countries like Nicaragua and Venezuela in attacks on Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. State visits or military exercises in other Latin American countries like Bolivia and Argentina often bookend military invasions. Russia’s strategy in Latin America may serve two purposes: to bypass sanctions that the West has taken against them, but also to provide a strategic position in the region against the U.S. in case of military engagement. 

Despite Russia’s advances, experts in the U.S. contend that much of Russia’s courting in the region is just a distraction. Kevin Whittaker, a former U.S. diplomat to Venezuela and Colombia said of Russia’s activity, “This is pure misdirection and it’s not fooling anyone.” Along with Brazil’s condemnation of the Russian invasion in Ukraine, other countries with closer ties to the U.S., such as Colombia, Argentina, Ecuador, and Chile, also condemned the invasion during the United Nations vote. Most countries in Latin America remain skeptical of Russia, and while there are few outliers that are cooperating with Russia, U.S. influence remains strong.

As long as this conflict lasts, it is critical that the U.S. does not become absorbed in its domestic concerns. In recent weeks, economic sanctions levied on Russia have caused oil prices to skyrocket throughout the West, in part due to other countries’ reliance on Russian oil forcing them to look for the same sources that others use. In order to fill the supply gap and curb rising gas prices throughout the country, the Biden administration has turned to Venezuela, a strong Russian ally in recent years who blamed the U.S. for the invasion. The U.S. paused diplomatic relations in 2019 under the Trump Administration, citing human rights abuses, and recognized Juan Guaido as the rightful leader. But now, the Biden administration’s search for quick relief from the spillover effects of sanctions with Russia forced them to look for creative solutions. In an ironic twist, the U.S. seeks to restart relations with Venezuela – ignoring the human rights abuses that caused them to sever relations – to ease the high gasoline prices as a product of sanctions on Russia for political and human rights abuses during the invasion. The U.S. may be using the opportunity to cut off Russia from one of its most important allies, the domestic economic situation shows it could be just in their selfish interest. 

While the U.S. and NATO direct their attention to stopping Russia in Ukraine, Russia could take advantage of the West’s weaknesses through other angles, for example bolstering relations with Latin America. Strengthening their relationships with historical allies like Venezuela and Cuba still continue to pose a threat and courting countries like Brazil could create new economic partners for Russia to bypass Western sanctions. Many in the U.S. consider Russia’s efforts a mere diversion but at the same time, their economic desperation shows that they still consider the region important. The U.S. needs to continue to pay attention to Russia’s advances in the region to keep Russia from influencing what they consider their own backyard.

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