Moldovan Energy Crisis Causes Political Unrest
Amid increasing government protests, Moldova is facing a devastating energy crisis due to the Russian occupation of Transnistria, a breakaway state internationally recognized as part of Moldova. Moldova’s largest power station, the Cuciurgan power station, supplies 70 percent of the country's electricity and is housed along the Ukrainian border in Transnistria. The pro-Russian Transnistrian government announced that beginning October 24, 2022, it would reduce the energy Cuciurgan power station supplies to Moldova to meet just 27 percent of the country’s needs. This move is devastating and comes at a time of massive political unrest in Moldova.
Aside from the electricity, Moldova receives from Cuciurgan TTP, the rest of its energy comes from Gazprom, a Russian-controlled gas monopoly. Gazprom has repeatedly threatened to cut off Moldova’s energy supply. In particular, these threats came after the country condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and, in March when Moldova received European Union candidacy. “Providing electricity for the country is a daily challenge,” President Sandu told the Romanian Parliament on a visit to the country. “Moldovan families now spend about 75 percent of their income on energy. We risk being without gas and electricity during the coming winter.” As the weather worsens, discontent with the government will rise and increase the protests currently plaguing the country.
Currently, Moldova’s Shor Party is exploiting social discontent and ranks second in the country’s polls. The populist party is led by Igor Shor, a fugitive involved in Moldova’s “theft of a century”. Communications between Shor and the Kremlin have caused speculation that the party is backed by Russia. Shor has taken advantage of Russian sympathies in Moldova by organizing a series of protests against the pro-Western government. Recently, thousands of Moldovans marched on the presidential palace, calling for President Maia Sandu’s resignation.
The price of natural gas in Moldova is seven times higher than it was in 2021. This drastic increase is the country’s main cause of social discontent and of a growing fear over how families will be able to heat their homes this winter. Moldova’s population of 2.6 million people is at risk of power outages. With cold weather coming, the population must have access to electricity. In this way, Russia can assert more control over Moldova’s internal affairs without taking political or military direct action.
Transnistria’s geographical location concerned Moldovan officials when Russia first invaded Ukraine. The Moldovan government feared that if southern Ukrainian cities, like Odesa, fell, Russian forces would enter Moldova next. The reality of the situation is that Russia does not need to enter Moldova to topple the government. Russia’s influence over the Transnistrian government and monopoly over the natural gas entering Moldova has left the pro-Western government in a precarious position.
The occurrences of protests in Moldova will only grow as power outages begin and gas prices increase. Simultaneously, the Shor Party, with Russian support, will continue to capitalize on the public’s unhappiness with the government to gain more power and popularity in Moldova. President Sandu recently visited Romania to inquire about natural gas, however, Romanian power lines are already running at 100 percent capacity. With the future of the Moldovan government on the line, internationally, there needs to be support for Moldova.
Moldova’s gas crisis threatens to topple the current government and leave a power vacuum for Igor Shor to take advantage of. Thousands of political protestors have marched on the capital, Chișinău, calling for President Sandu’s resignation. As Russia continues using access to energy to exacerbate the crisis, the United States and European Union need to help Moldova diversify its sources of energy.
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