Nuclear Weapons: The Unfortunate Solution to South Korean National Security
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From China’s ongoing hostility towards Taiwan’s independence to Russia’s pursuit of capturing Ukraine and Belarus, it seems that a new phase of international affairs is developing in Asia: one defined by territorial expansion and the revival of nationalist sentiment from the Chinese Communist Party and the Kremlin government. It is this definition of expansionism and nationalism that draws parallels with that of the Cold War.
When we turn our heads to another country in Asia, South Korea, the nation faces a major dilemma: should they possess nuclear weapons? Indeed, North Korea’s continuous military advancements are further perpetuating this dilemma, embodying the same characteristics of potential expansion and certainly the characteristic of nationalism. In 2022, North Korea confirmed its nuclear capabilities with the launch of cruise, ballistic, and submarine-launched missiles. Furthermore, the release of a new nuclear law in September 2022 established that North Korea would irreversibly become a nuclear weapon-holding nation. Kim Jong-un stated there will “never be any declaration of giving up our nukes or denuclearization.”
These stark advancements undoubtedly pose a threat to South Korea. Not only is North Korea successful in its nuclear pursuits – the country will never give these pursuits up and therefore will continue to advance and leave South Korea in the dust. Thus, as stated before, South Korea’s dilemma and reconsideration of policy toward the north emerges. To be sure, there seems to be an increase in consensus about holding nuclear weapons. Editorial Writer for Munhwa, a South Korean news outlet, explained that North Korea and South Korea are in a “boxing match,” in which “It’s a losing game if you don’t balance.” In other words, if South Korea holds any chance of national security, it needs to hold nuclear weapons.
It is important to note that working off a conventional deterrence system is not proving effective for South Korea. A major constituent of their security is the “Three-Axis” system which was created to counter North Korea’s nuclear threats after their fifth nuclear test in 2016. These three axes – Kill Chain, Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), and Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) – should aid the country offensively and defensively. KAMD, the defensive axis, has failed in creating multiple missile systems, and many systems have yet to be tested for effectiveness. Kill Chain and KMPR, the offensive axes, has a history of multiple malfunctions of ballistic missiles and crashing. This rocky history provides another reason for South Korea to turn towards nuclear possession.
Moreover, its allies like the United States cannot fulfill the goal for South Korean security. A 2022 poll conducted by Seoul National University showcased that 70.6% of South Koreans surveyed believed that the US would stay loyal to South Korean security. While this is certainly the majority, the push for South Korea’s possession of weapons proves that at the end of the day, support from Washington is insufficient. The country must spearhead and maintain South Korean national security as its own entity.
What’s more, the actions of Beijing and Moscow within the past year have turned the head of Seoul. There is an element of nostalgia for the past from the CCP and Kremlin, manifesting itself in the ongoing Taiwan-China hostility and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Belarus. North Korea’s alliance with these two powerhouses is another incentive for South Korea to bolster its defense. It is also an incentive for them to keep an eye out on the Taiwan-China conflict in particular. If China decides to invade Taiwan, it could act as an opportunity for North Korea to perceive its Southern counterpart in a more vulnerable light and act based on the actions of its ally.
Ultimately, if South Korea wants to be seen as a force to be reckoned with by the north, bolstering its national security is imperative. If that means obtaining nuclear weapons, so be it. One can argue that South Korea is restricted from doing so by prior agreements such as the 1992 Joint Declaration on the Korean Peninsula's Denuclearization and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. To be sure, President Yoon Suk Yeol and his administration have stayed true to these agreements. Yet, if North Korea won’t stay true to these agreements, nor should South Korea feel the need to. North Korea is threatening the stability of the country, and the south must respond accordingly.
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