Obrador and the Mexican Recall: A Political Show of Weakness
On the surface, this past presidential recall referendum in Mexico in early April 2022 looked like a complete blowout: more than 90% of the electorate chose to keep President Lopez Obrador in power. However, looking at the president’s position and power in Mexico today reveals that this high level of approval was not universal among Mexican voters.
Elected in 2018, President Obrador made a campaign promise to allow voters to recall him halfway through his term (for no apparent reason), which resulted in this recall election this April. The recall was due to happen late last year, during Mexico’s midterms but constitutional changes and organizational issues from the National Election Institute (INE) forced the referendum to move to April of this year. Polls heading into the recall were as high as ever: 74% of respondents approved of Obrador’s presidency thus far.
At the same time, Obrador struggled to deliver on his campaign promises like his vows to drive down poverty, jumpstart the economy, and confront crime and violence within Mexico. Yet after a pandemic and a global recession, the Mexican economy has slumped. Poverty is on the rise, and crime is rising in Mexico with attacks from drug cartels on women, migrants, and journalists going unpunished. Yet Obrador is as popular as ever, appealing to the populace by raising the minimum wage and increasing spending on welfare. His platform is built upon being a ‘champion for the people,’ yet [he is] doing little to address the systemic issues that cause that suffering.
Much of this sentiment was embedded in Mexico’s midterm elections in July 2021. Obrador’s party, Morena, could not get enough votes for a constitutional change in the Mexican Congress, partially the reason for the recall’s delay. Three opposition parties, the Revolutionary Party (PRI), the National Action Party (PAN), and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), allied with each other to block Morena from giving free rein. With more than 50% of Mexico’s eligible voters turned up to vote, Morena had still gained a majority, but the opposition gained enough support to prevent Morena from gaining the power to change the constitution. This was a clear sign that the Mexican public was not completely satisfied with Obrador and his party.
The recall, however, was not as perfect for Obrador as he hoped, as much of his party devoted time to illegal practices to get the vote out. While still getting nearly universal support with a 93% approval rate, tactics taken by Obrador’s party seemed suspicious in achieving that goal. The Supreme Court ruled that political parties could not advertise the recall, but that did not stop the many government officials in Morena that actively campaigned for Obrador to remain in power. For example, Morena party leaders drove vans to bring people to the polls, an illegal practice. Many government officials also had to meet a quota at a polling place from the party, with the mayor of Mexico City, Maria Sheinbaum, campaigning to show strength within the President’s electoral bastion. Posters around the capital told people to vote for Obrador during the referendum, and if they don’t, “the corrupt ones will take away the scholarships, assistance, and pensions that we receive today.”
But Obrador was never in doubt of losing the election, and it seemed more of a dry run of tactics that will be used during Obrador’s formal re-election campaign. Turnout was just below 20%, and the election was held on Palm Sunday, so most people just chose to ignore the referendum. Mexico requires a 40% quorum of the electorate in order to make the election legally binding, so many critics only considered the referendum as a way to show his political strength. The election is a positive sign for Obrador’s re-election campaign; he hopes to win by the same margin when his term expires in 2024. Obrador championed the election as a victory and “an exercise in democracy” to show that “the people are in charge,” despite the low turnout rate.
Obrador’s lynchpin for the low turnout rate has been the INE, the very agency that delayed his recall. The INE has been an independent electoral authority established in the 1990s, designed to prevent corruption in government after a seven-decade rule from the Old Revolutionary Party. Obrador and his Morena party are blaming the same electoral agency, saying the election operations are too expensive and do not advertise enough, and are generally hostile to his party. Obrador said that the INE are “openly against us” and complained that they did“not promot[e] the vote so that people wouldn’t know about it, putting polling booths as far away as possible.” However, the INE has complained that there is not enough funding from the government, and could only set up a third of the polling stations planned, and the leader of the INE, Lorenzo Cordova, says that “there is an orchestrated, systematic and well-designed campaign to discredit the INE.” The President hopes that their downfall from the government will bring the elections to their own demise, allowing the President’s party to take over as the Revolutionary Party had for the previous seven decades.
While Morena won, it came at a cost of credibility. Obrador’s party spent $80 million to plaster advertisements and rally support for the president, but many did not show up. The opposition encouraged voters to stay away from the polls, with Alejandro Moreno, the leader of one of the opposition parties, remarked the recall was just a “mockery” to “satisfy [Obrador’s] own ego and continue deceiving Mexicans.” The election seemed more of a rallying cry for Obrador to “show” he has power and give him confidence – while voter turnout, illegal voting practices such as the use of voting vans, and election meddling showed that he will do anything to show strength in power, even when his party has little influence among Mexicans.
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