The Implications of the Support of Ukraine on Travel and Tourism in the Baltic States

Despite bordering the looming Russian presence currently at war with Ukraine, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as Norway and Poland, condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These nations represent the five highest bilateral government Ukrainian aid commitments as a percentage of GDP by country. Of these five nations, three are Baltic states, but this should not have come as a surprise. After all, the Baltic states were the first three nations to have left the former Soviet Union, beginning when Estonia declared its independence on August 20, 1991. In this article, I discuss the economic and political implications of travel and tourism in response to the Baltic support of Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

After the Russian invasion reignited the conflict in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the conflict reminded the Baltic states of their history with Russia, formerly the Soviet Union. The Baltic states were oppressed under the regime of the former Soviet Union, fostering anti-Russian government sentiment in the Baltic states. This position is especially evident in Baltic politics. The Baltic states immediately responded to the conflict in Ukraine. For instance, Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda immediately declared a state of emergency. Latvian authorities suspended the broadcast licenses of several Russian TV stations in response to anti-Ukrainian sentiment and disinformation about Ukraine, Latvia, and many other countries. 

As of September 19, 2022, Poland, Estonia, and Lithuania have placed entry bans on most Russians with EU visas, specifically barring Russian citizens with the intent of tourism, business, sports, or cultural purposes. However, this does not include dissidents and humanitarian cases, among other circumstances like diplomacy. In response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Estonian foreign affairs minister Urmas Reinsalu, in particular, established that, “Travel is not a human right. We have to also give a strong push to Russian society to wake up. You can’t just walk on the streets… as a tourist, eyes wide shut.” In other words, Estonia, among the other Baltic states in agreement, assumed the position of closing its borders as a means of holding both the Russian government and society accountable for the unprovoked attack on Ukraine.

Upon closer inspection, tourism in the national GDP is fundamental in the Baltic states. Frontex, the European Union’s border service, reported that more than 928,000 Russians had entered Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland in the six months after the start of the war. Additionally, in a survey conducted by Aaron O'Neill, a research expert for Statista who specializes in global historical data, from 2011 to 2021, the service sector accounted for 63.65 percent, 60.26 percent, and 62.39 percent of Latvian, Lithuanian, and Estonian GDP respectively. This figure can be further illustrated by the percentage of tourism openness over gross domestic product from 2010 to 2021 in Latvia and Estonia, representing 1.4 percent and 4.7 percent. These figures are drastically different from pre-pandemic figures that indicated percentages two to three times greater. 

Tourism in the Baltic states is especially relevant to nations with relatively small As previously indicated by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the Baltic states' total commitments have amounted to just over 821-million euros.  In comparison to the rest of Europe, bilateral support figures of Baltic government commitments in percent of GDP are two to three times greater, despite larger nations committing more sums. The extent to which the Baltic states have invested in this conflict is incomparable to a majority of countries around the world. Despite this unwavering support, the geopolitical implications of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine are serious, and the policy implications that were instituted because of this conflict are far greater. These questions may concern the necessity of the Schengen Area and even the future of Eastern Europe. The farther these nations divide themselves, the further tensions escalate, threatening not only Baltic tourism, GDP, and national security but regional wellbeing in Western Europe, especially as, similarly to Ukraine, the Baltic states border the Russian Federation.

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