The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Its Implications in Africa

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are nothing new, and involve a long history of hostilities. These hostilities have increased in recent weeks, as 100,000 Russian troops line the border of Ukraine, instilling fear worldwide that a war between the two will emerge. This tension stems from Ukraine’s years-long path of splitting away from Russia's politics and sphere of influence. Additionally, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, historically had very low approval ratings. According to Al Jazeera, “[Putin] remembers his stratospheric ratings of almost 90 percent after Crimea’s annexation, and a new war or escalation may distract the public from domestic problems and boost Putin’s popularity.” However, many diplomats and experts remain skeptical of the real cause of the escalation, as The Kremlin justified Russian movement as solely an act of defense while remaining silent on future maneuvers. While Russia's intentions are not known, an escalation of tension, previously had, and continues to have significant implications for the rest of the world, especially throughout much of Africa. Both Russia and Ukraine have roles in the African continent (relationships with individual countries, as well as Africa as a whole) – Russia in a more political capacity and Ukraine in a resource capacity – that will impact Africa as the conflict continues. 

Russia's involvement in Africa has increased significantly in recent years. As the United States Government moved away from its involvement in Africa and in African leadership, the Kremlin took this opportunity to move in. Putin's Russia has seen fraudulent and misinformed elections which has continued into Africa as their relationship strengthened. According to Africa Center, “While Russia’s engagement in Africa is frequently characterized as opportunistic, Moscow has clear governance objectives guiding its actions. Vladimir Putin has said the liberal international order has become obsolete and has advocated for a multipolar world where democracy is but one of several viable governance systems. Putin’s post-liberal international order envisages more limited space for an active civil society and human rights protections. It entails moving away from a rules-based international system to one defined by transactional relationships between leaders. As such, Putin’s vision is less a new international order as a return to a 19th-century laissez-faire model unencumbered by international standards for political or human rights.” There is an advantage for Russia in gaining allies and creating a similar political structure in Africa, it increases Russia's world influence, access to the arms trade, creates access to the Mediterranean, expands naval access to the red sea,  increases access to natural resources, and displaces Western influence. Russia's efforts in Africa are further exemplified by the Russia-Africa summit in 2019, where Russia revealed a trade deal they were planning with African countries, as well as offered weapons support for the Central African Republic in their rebel fights. The summit exemplified Russia’s desire for collaboration and a growing relationship with more African countries.

Ukraine is a resource provider to Africa, as the country is a big exporter of natural produce and oils. According to IPS, “Ukrainian exports to Africa are growing steadily — from USD 210 million in 1996, to USD 1.75bn in 2005, and over USD 4bn in 2020. Imports, much to the delight of the national treasury, have not kept pace: USD 141 million in 1996, USD 426 million in 2005 and USD 810 million in 2020. In 2011, Ukraine had 56,000 foreign students; ten years later there are already 76,000, with Moroccan (8,800), Nigerian and Egyptian nationals in the top ten.” This began while Ukraine was still under the USSR, however Ukraine has continued to hold a significant role in Africa's imports.

With two very important roles in the African continent, a conflict between Russia and Ukraine will undoubtedly have major effects. This month, Russian mercenaries were withdrawn from Africa and moved to the border of Ukraine; officials said it was the first major withdrawal of mercenaries, who were hired by the CAR government, in more than four years. “It's the first time we are hearing that dozens have departed in a month,” a military official said. While this is strange, the consequences of this move are not necessarily of worry. The main concern is if Ukraine and Russia actually did end up in a war. If parts of Ukraine became a battleground, access to farming and exporting would decrease greatly. Since Ukraine is such a big exporter of resources to Africa, there would be a high risk of food insecurity. Foreign Policy explains, 

“Global food prices are already rising along with those of other commodities, and any disruption risks further price shocks as importing countries scramble for supplies in a tightening market. Food insecurity would be exacerbated in the many developing countries that depend on Ukraine for their sustenance… in many countries, too, price spikes and food insecurity could inflame conflict, heighten ethnic tensions, destabilize governments, and cause violence to spill over borders.”

The areas that import the most from Ukraine are in North Africa. Food insecurity as a result of escalation of tension could lead to an exacerbation of conflict in the areas where resources are no longer reaching. This potential outcome must be taken into account as world leaders move forward with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 

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