Venezuela: A Questionable Shift in State Security
Over the course of a couple of months, Venezuela has witnessed a state of increasing discontent and frustration from decline of resources to outright political turmoil. The main cause of this governmental chaos can be pinpointed to President Maduro’s time in office. Elected after Hugo Chavez’s death in 2013, Maduro’s rise to power was not warmly met by opposition parties and Venezuelan citizens---in fact, during his first term “the economy went into freefall and many Venezuelans blame[d] him and his socialist government for the country’s decline”. This conflict was further exacerbated by the 2018 elections, in which Maduro was reelected for a second term, causing considerable outrage from both the general population and opposition parties accusing Maduro of holding unfair elections. Ultimately, these accusations resulted in a series of protests and demands to step down, along with Juan Guiado, the main force of opposition, claiming legitimate presidency while receiving backing from Western powers, the US being the most prominent. Eventually, as the situation within the state was driven to greater extremes, more intervention from the international community could be noted, particularly with the United States and Russia supporting opposing sides. In the case of Venezuela, the question remains if interference in its governmental affairs will prove beneficial in improving governmental and societal affairs or whether continued aid from Western and Russian powers will cause greater security issues.
Though the US had offered humanitarian aid to Venezuelan citizens, it arguably played a larger impact in its resistant stance towards Maduro with the use of sanctions--measures that included “cutting off the central bank from the US financial system for transactions involving Venezuelan oil, effectively extending the scope of measures well beyond US shores”. This has only been further reemphasized by the Trump’s administration demand for heavier sanctions and an increase in aid for refugees, along with a suggestion of the use of the Rio Treaty, which “allows for additional diplomatic pressure and economic punishment to be brought against violators…[and] opens the door for a possible military response”. While sanctions have the hypothetical possibility of forcing a collapse of the Maduro regime by way of inability to support the nation economically, the risk could potentially be too great. Venezuela’s already weakening economy and lack of both food and necessary resources could be greatly crippled by the sanctions, allowing Maduro to keep a firm grasp on state power while easily repressing citizen opposition through economic ruin and starvation. Additionally, the US’ attempted backing of Juan Guiado’s failed attempt to depose of Maduro could lead to an even shakier coalition amongst opposition allies and a damaging political stalemate that could potentially cause the state to implode.
A further complication to this tenuous situation is Russia’s involvement with the Maduro regime. Upon US sanctions in January and rumors of increased American intervention, Russian oil firms aided in the diversion of oil exports to Asia while reports of Russian military airplanes were confirmed to be on Venezuelan soil. The primary reasoning for these actions can be tied to Venezuela’s economic relations with the nation, consisting of Russia “[owning] substantial portions of Venezuelan oil fields, which it got in exchange for loans and bailouts over the past decade”. In fact, the economic ties between the two nations have been so interconnected that the state has used loans and prepaid oil deliveries to even buy Russian guns and tanks for defense (despite some not being approved by the National Assembly). This allyship has especially been useful to Maduro, as Russia’s backing has allowed for a pushback at opposition and US interference. However, in the face of Venezuela’s decline, “Russian banks, grain exporters, even weapons manufacturers have all curtailed business with Venezuela, driven away by the very economic collapse they intended to help Russia’s South American ally withstand”. Though Maduro is currently in talks with President Putin, there is no guarantee or plan for a specific deal, and the already waning financial aid shows signs of further limitation. Essentially, Russia’s interference in the region has succeeded in limiting the US’ efforts to suppress Maduro’s regime, but may ultimately leave Venezuela further financially crippled and unable to rebuild a structurally and economically sound system.
Though the international community appears to be more aware of the humanitarian crisis and the need for action within the Venezuelan state, it seems as though outside influence may lead to a further political stagnation within the country. The difficulty, for both the opposition and Maduro supporters, mostly resides in balancing international influence and security while attempting to centralize control over a destabilized government, and a dissatisfied people.
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