The Trump Effect: How a Second Term Could Supercharge Europe's Far-Right Surge

The United States is bracing for a pivotal and unprecedented election this November. Yet, the result of this election will not only have a long-lasting effect domestically on the United States, but also could mean tidal shifts in the international system, with a special emphasis on Europe. In the wake of both the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU) and Donald Trump’s first election as U.S. President in 2016, far-right movements have experienced a surge of support in elections across Europe. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze how a potential second Trump administration could affect these movements, highlighting the cases of Italy, Germany, and France. 

To begin, it is crucial to understand the difference in the political climate in both the United States and Europe between 2016 and 2024. In 2016, the world faced many crises that seemed to threaten both the validity and integrity of the international system. These included, but were not limited to, the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, the Syrian refugee crisis, and repeated terrorist attacks carried out by the then-elusive Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Skepticism of globalism was at an all-time high: this was particularly due to  many members of the European and American right-wing perceiving their white identities as being threatened by various factors, including the surge in predominantly Arab refugees and immigrants, the elevation of a black man to the office of President of the United States, and greater reliance on international organizations. 

All of these factors laid the groundwork for what in retrospect seems inevitable: a pivot towards nationalism, isolationism, and protectionism through the election of far-right figures and parties, and more popular support for right-wing policies surging in the US. Pew Research has found a notable increase in populist right sentiment since the 2016 elections.

The U.S.’ political paradigm shift is clearly palpable, and comparable to what has occurred in Europe. Across the pond, the United Kingdom seemed to have the most stark and drastic pivot, when in 2016, voters chose to “Leave” the European Union. Since 2016, the U.K. cycled through 5 Conservative Prime Ministers, all of whom resigned, before electing a Labour majority government in 2024. Therefore, this referendum has resulted in an unprecedented turnover among the U.K. Prime Ministers. Examined as a parallel to the UK elections, the United States elected Mr. Trump months later, leading to one of the most polarized eras of modern American political history, with large implications for European policy. 

The situation in 2024 is more complicated: The successes of Brexit and Mr. Trump have led to the gradual normalization of far-right ideals, particularly with regards to immigration policy, an issue that has taken a stranglehold of political debates in the U.S. and Europe, and brought greater success for right-wing movements outside of their own borders. France has twice nearly elected Marine Le Pen, the leader of Rassemblement National (which will henceforth be referred to by its English translation, National Rally). Similarly, Germany’s Alternativ für Deutschland (AfD) has experienced state-level electoral success in recent months. Italy’s government, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy), is dominated by xenophobic rhetoric and bids for power on a continent-wide scale. Herein lies the question: if the 2016 U.S. presidential election was so consequential in kickstarting European far-right movements, what might a repeat of that success in 2024 mean for their long-term viability? 

Let’s begin with the far-right’s most glaring success: Italy. With a magnetic, charming strongwoman in Giorgia Meloni, the country’s Brothers of Italy came to power in 2022, empowered by her hardline stances against immigration, same-sex marriage, and euthanasia. Ms. Meloni has also made headlines for her praise of Mr. Trump, and her colleague in Hungary, Viktor Orbán. Some of her most notable policies as Prime Minister include reinstating non-vaccinated doctors during the COVID-19 pandemic, expanding drilling for domestic natural gas, and implementing stricter asylum procedures within Italy’s borders. Ms. Meloni’s ideology has descended from the Italian fascist traditions of Benito Mussolini and his contemporaries, and, through her populist approach to politics, has been compared to a similarly brash leader in the U.S., Mr. Trump. Yet simultaneously, Ms. Meloni has become a key ally for Ukraine in their continued defense against Russia’s invasion, repeatedly meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This contrasts starkly with Mr. Trump’s more vague rhetoric regarding the U.S.’s relationships with Russia and Ukraine. In recent weeks, Ms. Meloni has been praised by Elon Musk, a key ally of the Trump campaign. Still, how a Trump victory could affect Italy’s movement is yet unclear. Although Ms. Meloni has indeed become closer with Trump allies particularly in the lead-up to the election, she has also formed a crucial friendship with sitting President Joe Biden, an ardent supporter of his current Vice President Kamala Harris’ bid for the White House. It’s easy to come to the conclusion that a second Trump administration would further empower the hard right in Italy, but Ms. Meloni’s unclear allegiances, along with Italy’s continued support for Ukraine, seems to complicate what a second Trump-era Italy could look like. Ultimately, Italy’s fate will depend on the decision of Ms. Meloni herself, and how she chooses to pivot her standing on the aforementioned issues. 

France’s National Rally, on the other hand, is in a very different position. The party, headed by Marine Le Pen, faced losses in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, as well as the legislative elections in the same year. This past summer, centrist President Emmanuel Macron was forced to form a coalition with the left-wing, but ultimately angered them by choosing center-right figure Michel Barnier as Prime Minister. Ms. Le Pen has been a prominent character in European politics for over a decade, while being accused of antisemitism, racism, xenophobia, and more. It is evident that Donald Trump is not on the best of terms with Mr Macron–this January, he mocked the French leader by imitating his accent at a campaign event. During Mr. Trump's first administration, the two often clashed over climate and immigration policy. However, the U.S. seems to have had less of an effect on French politics than it has on other European far-right movements; which is why, despite Ms. Le Pen and her allies’ best efforts, the National Rally has yet to join a government in France, with their narrow defeat this past summer solidifying Mr. Macron’s fragile (yet wide) coalition. 

What a Trump victory could do is further destabilize France's relationship with the United States. After a monumental and extravagant trip to Paris by President Biden this summer (and a visit by First Lady Jill Biden to the Olympics opening ceremonies), Mr. Macron seemed to be comfortable with the current Democratic government. A return to Trump-era tactics and deadlock could therefore jeopardize Mr. Macron’s foreign policy agenda and thus make it less palatable to the French electorate. However, it is important to consider France’s rising far-left as well; would a lack of faith in Mr. Macron help Ms. Le Pen and the National Rally’s supposed victory, or will it deliver the far-left the momentum it seems to be inching towards?

Germany is a different story altogether. The birthplace of Europe’s infamous hard-right history, Germany is once again haunted by the ghosts of its past, in the shape of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a rising right-wing political party. The Eurosceptic, pro-Trump, pro-Putin party, which has been classified by the German government as extremist, has experienced a great deal of success in a very short period of time. AfD has built large populist movements, particularly in Germany’s East, in states like Thuringia and Saxony. Their radical anti-immigrant ideology has worried minorities across the country, particularly Germany’s large Turkish population. Holocaust survivors and Jewish Germans have expressed worry over the “fascist” sentiments of AfD, and their success in recent elections. While other parties are reluctant to form coalitions with the group, the party’s rising levels of support are concerning the German government.  If Mr. Trump wins in November, it could provide AfD the ideological jolt it needs in order to achieve mainstream success. 

The U.S. election in November will likely have an enormous impact on the trajectory of European and global politics in the near future. As far right movements grow and evolve, the return of a populist nationalist government in the United States could be just what these parties need to ascend to the next level.