A Decision of Dreams: Drama Unfolds in Tbilisi Following National Elections
This year’s election to determine the upcoming structure of Georgia’s 150-seat parliament was, to many, a turning point in its path towards integration with the European Union (EU) or further alignment with its northern neighbor—Russia. Polls have closed and vote tabulation has been finalized as Georgia, a nation in the South Caucasus, has concluded its parliamentary election with a turnout of just under 60 percent. Official preliminary results released by Georgia’s Central Election Commission (CEC) indicated a resounding victory for the government’s dominant party, Georgian Dream (GD), which received 56.1 percent of the vote. Founded by former Prime Minister and billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili (2012-2013), the nationalist Georgian Dream party has become a roadblock in Georgia’s path towards EU integration and has increasingly pushed the nation into further cooperation with Russia.
In a statement, PM Irakli Kobakhidze commended the citizens of Georgia as “authors of victory.” Many Georgians continue to seek inclusion into the European Union, with a resounding 79 percent supporting EU membership for Georgia in a 2023 poll. Such a statistic then starkly contrasts the results announced by the CEC, creating skepticism about an authentic victory by GD. The gravity of the election can be explained by Parliament's implementation of the Foreign Agent Law, which was upheld after President Salome Zourabichvili’s (2018-present) veto was overruled in May. Effective August 1st, the law would require any media or non-governmental organization (NGO) to legally register as “pursuing the interests of a foreign power;” this law is similar to the one that was legislated in Russia two years prior.
The series of Russian legislation that targeted organizations deemed ‘foreign agents’ has been interpreted as a clear violation of the 1953 European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), of which Georgia and Russia are signatories (the latter withdrew in 2022 following its invasion of Ukraine). For the thousands of NGOs and civil society organizations primarily funded by donors abroad, largely from Western nations, these laws could lead to their eventual removal by the Georgian administration. Nevertheless, various organizations and their leaders vowed to defy what they labeled as a ‘Russian law,’ in hopes that a parliamentary victory would allow for the repeal of the Foreign Agent Law. Alas, this anticipation would be met with the reality of a sweeping Georgian Dream victory.
Although various precincts are still in the process of counting, Kobakhidze publicly declared that GD secured “a convincing victory by a large margin” prior to the closure of voting stations. Opposition parties have since then denounced the validity of the votes, with United National Movement (UNM) Leader Tina Bokuchava decrying the “falsified elections” and Ahali Leader Nika Gvaramia labeling the elections as a “constitutional coup.” Not only have opposition parties voiced their rejection of the results, but President Zourabichvili dubbed the elections as rigged, prompting protestors in the tens of thousands outside of Parliament to demand the annulment of Saturday’s election.
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the subsequent establishment of an independent Georgia, Russia has been a source of great contention for the nation through its continual support of the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as discouragement of Georgia’s integration into Europe. Shortly after Georgia officially gained independence, Russia supported the armed efforts of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the Georgian Civil War (1991-1993). Fifteen years later, Russia invaded the two self-proclaimed republics and removed Georgia’s remaining authority in the regions. Although few nations outside of Russia officially recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, these territories remain under the influence of the Kremlin. This is similar to the cases of the Russian-backed republics in the Donbas region of Ukraine.
In the past couple of years, Georgia’s government under GD has increasingly cemented its position of distancing itself from its Western alliances and adopting perspectives of the Kremlin on various critical issues, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Another example of this strengthening alignment is GD’s promotion of conspiracy theories concerning the ‘Global War Party’, an international organization that allegedly exerts influence upon Western nations and undermines their national integrity. Denying Moscow’s ability to influence the election process of Georgia, PM Kobakhidze asserts that the West is the external influence in its domestic politics. He has cited the EU’s introduction of ‘LGBT propaganda,’ its impending ‘colonization,’ and ultimately, involvement in Ukraine’s war that has been pushed by the West to create another front in Georgia. Capitalizing on the ongoing war in Ukraine, GD’s pre-election campaign used posters comparing the ‘war-torn’ Mauripol and the thriving Tbilisi. Such an ominous reality presented by GD ignites the fears of many voters who lived through the Georgian wars in 1991 and 2008 should they not vote in favor of the ruling party
Dismissing claims of election irregularities, PM Kobakhidze and other parliamentary leaders have countered the opposition’s outcry. Speaker of the Parliament Shalva Papuashvili accused President Zourabichvili of creating a ‘coup scenario’ that violates the norms of democratic elections. Russia continues to deny its involvement in the meddling with Georgia’s election and propping up GD’s campaign. Nevertheless, other leaders in the region, including Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán, the latter of which had just arrived in Tbilisi, have already expressed their congratulations to GD.
The current situation for those who envisioned a more European future for Georgia looks bleak amidst demands by the opposition to conduct internationally monitored snap elections. In GD’s commitment to ensuring its political majority in Parliament since the election of Ivanishvili in 2012, Georgian authorities have returned with allegations of election disinformation directed at those who have questioned the validity of the elections. Although the future outcomes of the elections on October 27 are still yet to be determined, Bundestag Chairman of Foreign Affairs Michael Roth has commented on the post-election situation in Georgia, indicating the threat of the ‘Belarusification’. Calling on the EU to address this issue with severity, Roth has cited the potential of the gradual repression of opposition parties and the restriction of independent media within Georgia.
In a striking comparison to Kyiv’s Euromaidan in 2014, in which thousands of Ukrainians protested their government’s decision to side with Russia rather than the EU, Georgians flocked to the streets of Tbilisi, voicing their discontent with the Georgian Dream party and its continuous obstruction of a European future. The aftermath of Georgia’s parliamentary election continues to unravel, creating uncertainty in the 33-year-old former Soviet republic.