China Brokers Saudi Arabia-Iran Diplomatic Agreement – Implications for Yemen’s Civil War
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On March 10, 2023, an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran was signed in Beijing, restoring diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Brokered by China, the agreement marks a significant shift in relations between the two regional rivals. In the agreement, both Saudi Arabia and Iran commit to reopening embassies in their counterpart’s territories, avoiding interference in the internal affairs of foreign states and expressing a shared commitment to respecting each state’s sovereignty.
This agreement was signed amidst growing efforts from Beijing to build its diplomatic involvement in the Middle East. These efforts include Xi-Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the first China-Arab states summit, and China’s effort to broker Israel-Palestinian peace approximately five years ago. While the motivations behind China’s interest in the region’s diplomacy bears semblance to regard for international geopolitics, the agreement that has resulted from China’s approach to the Middle East has nonetheless raised questions for the future of the Yemeni Civil War, a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The weakening of Yemen’s central governance, from political unrest and protests in 2011, preluded the Yemeni Civil War. Yemen’s former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, then facing political challengers to his position, oversaw the government during an Al Qaeda-affiliated militia’s seizure of Yemeni territory. The instability of Yemen and the growing territorial advances of Al Qaeda-backed militias were cited by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other nations as reasons for their involvement. This then led to a political compromise that facilitated the transition of former Vice President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi to presidential power.
In 2012 President Hadi, a previous Yemeni political reformist, was placed at the center of Yemen’s changing political order, putting him at odds with the anti-governmental northern Yemeni Houthi movement. The Houthi party is a majority Shia movement that partly began as an antagonistic response to rising Saudi influence in northern Yemen in the 1990s and has been fighting against Yemen’s majority Sunni government since 2004. Furthermore, Yemen’s government has accused Iran of supporting the Houthis, backed by evidence of weapons transfers cited by the United States and Saudi Arabia. Conflicts between President Hadi’s government and the Houthis erupted shortly into the governance of Hadi, namely the Houthis’ attack on Hadi’s tribal allies in the shadow of Hadi’s National Dialogue Conference. This culminated in the 2014 Houthi seizure of the Yemeni capital and the enforced house arrest of President Hadi. President Hadi escaped and appealed to Saudi Arabia for assistance in solving Yemen’s domestic political problems – beginning Saudi Arabia’s military involvement in the conflict.
Saudi Arabia, backed by an international coalition, has since assumed a position of support for restoring the political rule of former President Hadi, an endeavor that has seen heightened Saudi Arabian military involvement in Yemen. Along with Saudi military air strikes in Yemen, the Saudi Arabian forces imposed a devastating blockade on all Yemeni ports in the aftermath of a Houthi missile attack in Saudi Arabia. The missile was allegedly tied to Iran – a claim evidenced by similarities in design between the Iranian Qiam short-range ballistic missile and Houthi missiles fired into Saudi Arabia. The blockade of Yemen’s ports led to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, causing food and water insecurity in vast areas of Yemen. During the blockade, as many as five Yemeni cities had exhausted their clean water supply. This occurred while Saudi Arabia and its international backing asserted its conduct was just, as it aimed to deprive the Houthis of military supplies.
Yemen's civil war and ongoing conflicts have resulted in the UN describing the country as “the world’s largest man-made food security crisis,” including humanitarian issues such as the internal displacement of over three million people since 2015, the collapse of essential welfare services, and over-extension of humanitarian aid networks. Currently, 22.2 million people in Yemen’s population are in need of urgent humanitarian assistance – including 11.3 million people living in acute need. Further, military conflict in the country continues to impede humanitarian recovery, with air strikes from Saudi Arabia and the United States and other attacks from the Iranian-backed Houthis.
The diplomatic agreement that China has brokered between Saudi Arabia and Iran thus comes at a time when Yemen, inflamed by clashes between foreign military intervention and the Houthis, is in a state of extreme humanitarian devastation. As military action by both Saudi Arabia and Iran has pushed Yemen into this dire state, the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two competing regional rivals opens the door for humanitarian recovery in Yemen.
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