Turkish Aggression in Northern Syria Raises Fears of Regional Destabilization

In the advent of President Trump’s greenlight for a military offensive after a phone call with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, U.S. troops have been withdrawn from the North-East portion of Syria, effectively allowing Turkish military forces to conduct its military operations into territory controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of Kurdish and Arab fighters backed by the United States and, in the Turkish government’s perspective, a terrorist offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).  This newfound agreement between Turkey and the United States was met with international condemnation and unease as many state actors fear such a conflict would result in a Pandora’s Box of unintended consequences that would heavily destabilize the region and betray a key ally that has been instrumental in fighting with the international campaign against Daesh (ISIL).

The Turkish offensive dubbed “Operation Peace Spring” began on October 9th with aerial bombing runs striking the Kurdish held border towns of Tell Abyad, Ras al-Ayn, Ain Issa, and Qamishli. These preliminary strikes have caused, according to Kurdish officials, “a huge panic” among civilians resulting in the tens of thousands fleeing the conflict in what looks to be the prospect of yet another refugee crisis in an already war-stricken region. Once the ground assault commenced on the 10th, a number of civilian and combatant casualties were reported with conflicting figures from both sides. While Turkey’s Ministry of National Defense has announced the death of 4 Turkish soldiers since the operation began, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a monitor of human rights abuses in Syria, claimed the actual number to be 6 with an additional 12 Turkish casualties in the town of Kobanî. SDF casualties on the other hand, have been reported to be allegedly as high as 399 by the Turkish government. In retaliation, the SDF has been shelling Turkish encampments and border towns with both sides indiscriminately killing a number of civilians as a result.

Due to the size of the offensive with forces from Turkey and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in the north and Assad’s regime forces massing at the border south of the region, the SDF has “cancelled” all anti-ISIL operations as it levels its focus on defending its territory. Consequently, the number of SDF guards in prison camps holding ISIL fighters have decreased and, due to continued Turkish bombardment, some militants have escaped and others have claimed responsibility for bombing attacks that have killed civilians in the town of Qamishli. In response to international fears of an ISIL rebound, the Turkish government has maintained that it would take up the role of detaining and defeating militant forces within the buffer zone it intends to create along the border. However, the success of these efforts are uncertain as Turkish military and administrative forces would not have nearly as much logistical experience as the Kurds due to their comparatively lacking participation in the campaign against ISIL.

Beyond the revival of Daesh, northern Syria’s democratic experiment also faces a bleak future. Once Assad’s regime lost authoritative control after the Syrian Revolution in 2012, Kurdish forces seized the opportunity to carve out their autonomous region of northern Syria called Rojava. Considering the recent failures of state building in the Middle East, the Kurds looked to Abdullah Öcalan, the founder of PKK, and his form of decentralized self-government dubbed “democratic confederalism”. Built upon the ideals of communalism, villages in Rojava would retain authority through assemblies in which all civilians would engage in many levels of direct democracy. Rarely seen in the Middle East, there are also concerted efforts to include women and minority groups in local decision making in order to sustain a more collective system. Their justice system also reveals incredible advances within such a fractured region as it intends to focus more on community justice or “social peace” rather than punishment. This form of government has survived in a largely stateless region although it requires a level of autonomy that the invading Turkish forces will not allow.

As the Turkish troops advance further into Rojava, international response has remained a moral outrage as a number of states have condemned, expressed concern, or neutrality in the face of President Erdoğan’s efforts. Attempts were made by five European members of the UN Security Council to push for an official UN statement condemning Turkey’s military operation although other member states, including the US expressed concern and stopped short of a full condemnation. In light of these events, it is unlikely that an international solution will be reached to deter the impending humanitarian crisis and the failure of a newly formed democracy.

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